花旗:沃什将谨慎推进美联储缩表

BitPush
Feb 10

比推消息,花旗策略师表示,美联储主席提名人沃什很可能会采取循序渐进的方式缩减美联储规模达6.6万亿美元的资产组合,以避免重新引发货币市场紧张。任何重启缩表的尝试都可能再次给规模达12.6万亿美元的回购市场带来压力。花旗策略师表示:“鉴于去年回购市场经历了剧烈波动,重启QT的门槛相当高。可以推测,FOMC会更倾向于采取渐进式做法。”不过沃什领导下的美联储仍有多种方式缩减资产规模。最小阻力路径可能是通过将到期的长期国债转换为短期债务,缩短持仓的加权平均期限;也可能选择将目前约每月400亿美元的国库券购买规模下调,甚至完全停止;其他选项还包括允许其所持有的抵押贷款支持证券自然到期。花旗预计,决策者将自4月中旬起把购债规模降至每月约200亿美元,并持续至年底。

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