By Evie Liu

Like many of its packaged-food peers, Kraft Heinz is struggling with weaker sales as consumers trade down in response to high prices and retailers push sales of private-label goods. Analysts expect a ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines in net revenue for the fourth quarter.

The numbers are due before the market opens on Wednesday. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to post 61 cents in earnings per share, down from 84 cents a year ago. Revenue is expected to decline 3% from the year-ago period to $6.37 billion.

In the third quarter, net sales fell 2.3% from a year earlier, largely driven by weakness in the North American market. Rising advertising spending and higher prices for commodities, especially coffee, have pressured operating income. Adjusted earnings were 61 cents a share, down from 75 cents a year earlier.

At the time, management updated its guidance for full-year 2025, saying it expected organic net sales to decline by 3% to 3.5%. It forecast adjusted earnings of between $2.50 and $2.57 a share, compared with $3.06 in 2024.

To sharpen the business's focus and unlock shareholder value, Kraft Heinz announced plans to split into two independent firms. Global Taste Elevation will hold faster-growing brands like Heinz, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Kraft Mac & Cheese. North American Grocery will own brands facing bigger challenges, such as Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles, and Lunchables.

The split, expected to take place in the second half of 2026, would reverse the company's decade-old merger and signal a strategic pivot. Kraft Heinz recently hired a new CEO, Steve Cahillane, who is expected to eventually take over Global Taste Elevation. The board is still searching for the head of the North American Grocery operation.

Investors remain cautious about the outlook. The stock has tumbled nearly 16% over the past 12 months, lagging far behind the 14% gain for the S&P 500.

"Lacking greater details and compelling discussions thus far, regarding how the corporate split will enhance growth for the subsequent businesses, we anticipate that investor interest will remain limited," wrote Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner in a January note to investors.

He said factors that might boost the stock could include a pre-split divestiture of the Oscar Mayer lunchmeat business, or moving some weaker assets -- most notably Mac & Cheese -- from Global Taste Elevation to North American Grocery.

The stock could come under additional pressure if its biggest shareholder, Berkshire Hathaway, decides to exit. Berkshire owns about 27.5% of Kraft Heinz, a stake worth roughly $8.1 billion as of Tuesday.

The firm has held the position since the 2015 Kraft-Heinz merger, but former CEO Warren Buffett has publicly expressed doubts about management's plan to split the company, questioning whether it will actually reignite growth.

Even the possibility that Berkshire might sell its Kraft Heinz stake has been weighing on the stock. If the company does begin unloading shares, it could send the price lower still.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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February 10, 2026 16:44 ET (21:44 GMT)

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