金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，1月汽车终端销量有所放缓，主要受新能源车购置税优惠退坡及以旧换新政策具体落地细则未明的影响。12家公布销量的车企1月新能源车销量合计环比下滑41%、同比下滑6%。预计2月受春节假期影响行业销量或延续筑底，期待年后新车上市带动行业需求边际回暖。全年聚焦结构性增长：乘用车零售量或持平，批发量受益出口有望增2.9%；新能源零售渗透率预计将攀升至60%（同比+12.6%），出口增40%驱动批发销量达1,778万台（同比+15.1%）。车企盈利持续分化：该机构预计比亚迪和吉利的4Q25净利或好于部分投资者的预期；小鹏4Q有望首度扭亏，零跑全年盈利目标有望达成，理想4Q或现小额亏损，蔚来盈亏平衡的目标仍极具挑战。
投资主线建议关注：1）整车首选吉利汽车（00175 HK），新能源车矩阵逐步完善+出口加速夯实盈利基盘；2）电池新势力正力新能（03677 HK），客户结构优化助推利润率提升。
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