0941 ET - Lukewarm job creation is expected to follow the surprisingly hot January payroll numbers, Citi economists write. "Softer labor market data in the Spring and Summer leads the Fed to resume rate cuts in our base case," they say. January payrolls rose by 130,000, beating WSJ consensus of 55,000. The actual figure, however, was lower than Citi's forecast of 135,000, which was "not based on a fundamental strengthening of the labor market but instead due to 'residual seasonality'," the economists write. They expect the Fed to stay on hold in the first half of the year. After that, Citi forecasts three rate cuts, in line with markets pricing. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 12, 2026 09:41 ET (14:41 GMT)

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