Shopify's Margins Strain Under AI-Driven Growth Push -- Update

Dow Jones
Feb 12
 

By Adriano Marchese

 

Shopify is plowing ahead with investments in artificial intelligence and international expansion, moves that will put pressure on margins in the near term as the company bets on unlocking future growth.

The online shopping platform, which provides the backbone for thousands of online shops, on Wednesday said it expects free cash flow margin to be down in the first quarter versus last year, continuing the pressure it saw in the previous quarter. The outlook came after Shopify reported a mixed fourth quarter, with adjusted per-share earnings below expectations while sales topped Wall Street estimates.

The stock, after ticking higher premarket, plunged when the market opened and was recently down 14% to 149.17 Canadian dollars ($110.08). The stock is down over 30% since the start of the year, part of a broader pullback in shares of software based companies as investors assess the impact of AI.

A large part of Shopify's planned investment focuses on its agentic commerce build-out which aims to let AI assistants shop on behalf of customers. That push, along with more investments in marketing, and rolling out new tools for merchants, is adding to costs.

The company is also expanding its global footprint among both small and enterprise merchants, pushing growth in international markets, especially in Europe where more merchants are signing onto its platform.

"As a growth company, we choose to invest in these areas rather than pursue higher free cash flow margins in the near-term," Chief Financial Officer Jeff Hoffmeister said.

In the meantime, Shopify is enjoying strong growth. It finished its fourth quarter, which encapsulates merchant sales made during the holiday season, with sales up 31% from a year ago. It also expects revenue to rise at a similar rate in the current quarter.

Shopify reported net income of $743 million, or 57 cents a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or 99 cents a share, a year ago. Adjusted earnings came in 2 cents below consensus forecast at 48 cents a share.

Free cash flow was $715 million, up from $611 million, while free cash flow margin slipped to 19% from 22%.

Gross merchandise volume, which measures the total dollar value of all sales made through a platform, also came in ahead of expectations at $123.84 billion from $94.46 billion, while monthly recurring revenue climbed to $205 million from $178 million.

 

Write to Adriano Marchese at adriano.marchese@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 11, 2026 12:25 ET (17:25 GMT)

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