AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) Valuation Check After Earnings, Dividend Update And Telecoms Exit

Simply Wall St.

Feb 14

AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) has put its recent half year result and telecoms exit in front of investors, combining a A$7,044 million sales update, lower profit and a higher fully franked interim dividend. ...

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This suggests momentum has picked up as investors react to the half year earnings, higher interim dividend and telecoms exit.\nIf this...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AGL":"agilon health, inc.","AGL.AU":"AGL ENERGY LTD"},"translate_title":"AGL Energy(ASX：AGL)盈利、股息更新和电信退出后的估值检查","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AGL":1.5,"AGL.AU":1.5},"content_text":"AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) has put its recent half year result and telecoms exit in front of investors, combining a A$7,044 million sales update, lower profit and a higher fully franked interim dividend. See our latest analysis for AGL Energy. AGL Energy shares have moved sharply in recent weeks, with a 19.63% 1 month share price return and 16.42% 7 day gain. This suggests momentum has picked up as investors react to the half year earnings, higher interim dividend and telecoms exit. If this earnings update has you reconsidering where you look for ideas, it could be a good time to scan our 25 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks for other grid and infrastructure names linked to long term energy themes. With AGL Energy shares up double digits over the past month, steady underlying EBITDA, a higher interim dividend and the telecoms exit all on the table, is this a fresh opportunity or is the market already pricing in what comes next? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 9.2% Undervalued AGL Energy's most followed narrative suggests a fair value of A$11.48 per share, compared with the last close of A$10.42, which implies some upside according to that framework.  Significant investment in grid-scale battery developments and firming capacity is positioning AGL to capture revenue and earnings growth as electricity demand rises from electrification of homes, industry, and transport. As these assets come online through FY26 to FY28, they are expected to more than offset the decline in coal and gas earnings from asset retirements and contract expiries, supporting future EBITDA growth and earnings stability.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue path and margin profile need to line up for that fair value to make sense, and how long it might take to show up in earnings, the full narrative lays out the numbers behind that story without you having to build the model yourself. Result: Fair Value of A$11.48 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, heavy capital spending that pressures free cash flow, along with execution risk on new battery and flexible assets, could quickly challenge the bullish earnings narrative. Find out about the key risks to this AGL Energy narrative. Another View: Our DCF Model Points The Other Way That 9.2% “undervalued” story is not the only one in play. Our DCF model, which focuses on future cash flows rather than earnings multiples, points to a fair value of A$7.09 per share. On that view, AGL Energy at A$10.42 would actually screen as overvalued. Which lens do you trust more for a capital intensive utility with big projects ahead? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AGL Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AGL Energy for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 12 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own AGL Energy Narrative If you are not convinced by these views or prefer to rely on your own work, you can test the data, shape your own AGL Energy story and Do it your way in just a few minutes. A great starting point for your AGL Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If this AGL Energy update has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the same tools to uncover other opportunities before the crowd gets there.  Target potential value opportunities by running our 12 high quality undervalued stocks and see which companies the numbers suggest may be priced below their fundamentals. Prioritise financial resilience with the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (19 results), focusing on companies that pair sturdier balance sheets with consistent fundamentals. Build an income focused watchlist using our 9 dividend fortresses and spot companies offering higher yields with an emphasis on stability.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}