Is Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Fairly Priced After Recent Pullback From Multi Year Highs

Simply Wall St.

Feb 16

If you are trying to figure out whether Palantir Technologies is reasonably priced or just riding hype, you are in the right place to unpack what the current share price might actually reflect. ...

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Palantir's stock closed at US$131.41, with a 7 day return of a 3.3% decline, a 30 day return of a 23.1% decline, a year to date return of a 21.7% decline and a 1 year return of 10.3%, while its 3 year return is very large and its 5 year return sits at 353.1%. Recent attention around Palantir has revolved around its role in software for government and commercial clients, with recurring headlines about long term contracts and its position in data analytics. These themes help frame why the stock has seen strong multi year gains despite more recent pullbacks. Even with all that interest, Palantir currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. Next we will look at what different valuation methods say about the stock today, and then finish with a way to think about value that goes beyond any single model.  Palantir Technologies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Palantir Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those back to today using a required return, to arrive at an estimated value per share. For Palantir Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $2.1b. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest Free Cash Flow reaching $13.3b in 2030, with interim forecasts such as $4.0b in 2026 and $10.1b in 2029, all in $. After discounting these projected cash flows, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $124.76 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $131.41, this implies the stock is around 5.3% overvalued, which is within a fairly tight band. Result: ABOUT RIGHT Palantir Technologies is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. PLTR Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Palantir Technologies. Approach 2: Palantir Technologies Price vs Book For profitable, asset light software companies, the P/B ratio can be a useful cross check because it compares what the market is paying to the accounting value of equity on the balance sheet. While it does not capture cash flow directly, it helps you see how much of a premium investors are putting on the company’s assets. What counts as a “normal” P/B often reflects how investors view growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth and stronger perceived durability of the business usually justify a higher multiple, while higher risk or weaker profitability can pull it down. Palantir currently trades on a P/B of 42.40x. That sits far above the broader Software industry average P/B of 2.70x and also above the peer group average of 19.98x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what P/B might be appropriate after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, the Software industry context, market cap and company specific risks. This can be more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for differences in quality and scale. As the Fair Ratio is not available here, there is not enough information to say whether 42.40x looks overvalued, undervalued, or about right. Result: ABOUT RIGHT NasdaqGS:PLTR P/B Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/B ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Palantir Technologies Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. On Simply Wall St you can use Narratives, which are simple story based forecasts where you set your view on Palantir Technologies' future revenue, earnings and margins, link that story to a financial model that produces a Fair Value, and then compare that Fair Value to the current price. The platform keeps everything updated automatically when new news or earnings arrive. On the Community page you can see a wide spread of Palantir Technologies Narratives. These range from more cautious views with Fair Values around US$13.25 or US$19.79, through mid range views between roughly US$65 and US$107, up to very optimistic stories with Fair Values such as US$440, US$699.78 or US$255.00. This shows how the same company and the same current price can lead different investors to very different conclusions, depending on the story they believe and the assumptions they choose to plug into the forecast. For Palantir Technologies, however, we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Palantir Technologies Narratives: On Simply Wall St there are 12 community Narratives in total for Palantir Technologies, with 5 that see the stock as undervalued and 7 that see it as overvalued at the recent price of US$131.41. Here is one example from each side to help you compare how different investors are thinking. 🐂 Palantir Technologies Bull Case Fair Value: US$699.78 Implied undervaluation vs last close: about 81% Revenue growth used in this story: 50%  Focuses on Palantir’s “boots on the ground” approach, where engineers work on site with customers to help software stick and deliver real operational changes. Highlights more than 500 AIP bootcamps as a way to drive onboarding, user engagement and broader adoption across customer teams. Uses customer feedback, such as Fabric’s comments on Foundry, to support a view that the platform can open up new data integration possibilities and support growth, which underpins a high Fair Value of US$699.78.  🐻 Palantir Technologies Bear Case Fair Value: US$96.00 Implied overvaluation vs last close: about 37% Revenue growth used in this story: 26%  Points to very high valuation ratios such as P/E, P/B and PEG, and argues that a lot of optimism is already reflected in the share price. Flags several risks, including reliance on government contracts, rising competition in data analytics and AI, and exposure to regulatory and legal issues around sensitive data. Notes that broader market conditions and shifting sentiment toward high growth tech could add volatility, which supports a lower Fair Value of US$96.00.  If you want to see how your own view compares to these, you can set up a Palantir Technologies Narrative, plug in your assumptions for growth, profitability and required return, and see where your Fair Value lands between these two anchors. Do you think there's more to the story for Palantir Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:PLTR 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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