The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0828 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower in early trade, awaiting fresh drivers. U.S. markets are closed Monday, there is no eurozone government bond supply and the data calendar is thin. "Bunds may take a breather amid stabilising risk sentiment and the U.S. holiday, but the constructive duration backdrop is likely to extend ahead of the data reality check on Friday," Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. On Friday, flash estimate French, German and eurozone purchasing manager indices will be released for February. The 10-year German Bund yield edges down 0.7 basis points to 2.750%, while the 10-year French OAT yield falls 1.3 basis points to 3.331%, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0803 GMT - Gold trades back above $5,000 a troy ounce after getting a boost from weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data. This raises bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates, ANZ analysts write. Lower borrowing costs typically support nonyielding assets like gold. Swap traders are pricing in about 50% chance of a third rate cut by December, they add. Rate cuts will support inflows into the precious metal, while geopolitical and economic uncertainties will fuel additional demand, they say. In New York, gold futures are down 0.4% at $5,024 a troy ounce. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0750 GMT - U.K. housebuilders are turning cautious as the sector shifts into a buyers' market, with homes for sale reaching an 11-year high in February, RBC Capital Markets analysts Anthony Codling and Oliver Dyson say in a note. According to Rightmove's latest report, asking prices remain virtually flat for the month and are unlikely to surprise housebuilders, the analysts say. Incentive levels remain high and sales rates have yet to bounce into the spring selling season, RBC says. On a weighted average year-on-year basis, regional house price trends in the month benefit Gleeson, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey the most with Berkeley, Crest Nicholson and Vistry seen as benefiting the least, RBC says. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0741 GMT - The dollar rises slightly but remains within its recent range in holiday-thinned trade, with U.S. equity and bond markets closed for Presidents Day. With little on the U.S. calendar Monday, investors are looking ahead to Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday followed by advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures and PCE inflation data on Friday. Markets will be looking for clues on the timing of the next interest-rate cut by the Fed in the wake of last week's strong U.S. jobs data and lower-than-expected inflation data. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 96.967.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0657 GMT - The disconnect between robust U.S. economic data and fearful U.S. financial markets is unlikely to continue, Capital Economics' Jonas Goltermann and Thomas Mathews say in a note. "We expect that U.S. equity markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar will rebound," the economists say. It is difficult to square the recent drop in U.S. Treasury yields with the January labor market data and inflation data, they say. "The former was surprisingly strong, while the latter wasn't as soft as the market reaction implied." More broadly, the U.S economy appears to be starting 2026 on the front foot, with most data having come in better than generally expected, "which we expect to continue over the coming months." Typically, that leads to higher, not lower, yields, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0653 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged through 1Q, given the country's solid 4Q growth momentum, Goldman Sachs economists write in a note. 4Q GDP rose 2.5% on year, improving from 3Q's 1.2% increase. "The latest release was a clear upside surprise, beating consensus expectations and even exceeding our upper-end forecast of 1.8%," the economists say. Looking ahead, Thailand's investment momentum could remain strong, driven by factors including a robust project pipeline. Goldman Sachs maintains its call for the BOT to remain on hold in 1Q, before delivering a rate cut in 2Q.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0639 GMT - The 10-year Finnish-German government bond yield spread has widened modestly ahead of Tuesday's auction, but is expected to tighten again, Danske Bank's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. This prospect should attract investors to Tuesday's Finnish bond auction, recommending investors "to buy some cheap Finnish government bonds." The Finnish State Treasury will auction 1.5 billion euros in September 2035- and April 2041-dated government bonds on Tuesday. The 10-year Finnish-German yield spread closed at 27 basis points on Friday, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0630 GMT - ​Finnish government bonds at auction on Tuesday offer good value, Nordea's Anders Skytte Aalund says in a note. The Finnish State Treasury will offer 1.5 billion euros in September 2035- and April 2041-dated bonds. Finnish government bonds have already performed well year to date in both asset swap terms and versus German equivalents, but they have cheapened relative to Austrian bonds. He expects both auction bonds to be well absorbed at the auction. Nordea therefore recommends switching from Dutch and Austrian bonds to buy Finnish ones, Aalund says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0624 GMT - The current Japanese government bond curve is no longer embedding any 'country risk premium,' Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. The 10- to 30-year segment is now back to fair value, while the two- to 10-year curve is only 10-15 bps steeper than fair, they say. "The resolution of uncertainty [in the recent Lower House election] in itself was likely sufficient in removing some long-end risk premium," they say. Last week's price action, however, "seems to have extended beyond that factor alone, giving both the government and the Bank of Japan more benefit of the doubt in their ability to resolve the 'bad' fiscal tail," the analysts say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0611 GMT - ​The flattening trend on the long end of the Japanese government bond yield curve is unlikely to continue, Morgan Stanley MUFG's Koichi Sugisaki and Hiromu Uezato say in a note. The market has already fully priced out the term premium generated by concerns about potential fiscal expansion under the new administration, the strategists say. "Since it was offshore investors-who are sensitive to valuation-that mainly drove the long-end JGB rally, we would expect some profit-taking around this level," they say. Markets may be wondering whether the U.S. government aims to influence the Takaichi administration towards greater emphasis on fiscal discipline, given concerns that any surge in Japanese interest rates could have unwanted repercussions in the U.S. Treasury market, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 16, 2026 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT)

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