A Look At Sigma Lithium (SGML) Valuation After New Lithium Offtake Deal And Regulatory Clearance

Simply Wall St.

Feb 14

Sigma Lithium (SGML) has moved back into focus after agreeing to sell 150,000 tonnes of high purity lithium fines at US$140 per tonne, with additional volume and customer prepayments tied to resumed ...

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The 90 day share price return of 120.30% and 1 year total shareholder return of 18.25% contrast...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","BK4588":"碎股","SGML":"Sigma Lithium Corporation","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"新锂承购交易和监管批准后Sigma Lithium(SGML)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SGML":1.5},"content_text":"Sigma Lithium (SGML) has moved back into focus after agreeing to sell 150,000 tonnes of high purity lithium fines at US$140 per tonne, with additional volume and customer prepayments tied to resumed production. See our latest analysis for Sigma Lithium. These contracts arrive after a volatile period for the stock, with a 7 day share price return of 9.25% but a 30 day share price decline of 19.53%. The 90 day share price return of 120.30% and 1 year total shareholder return of 18.25% contrast with a 3 year total shareholder return decline of 54.72%, suggesting momentum has picked up recently from a still mixed longer term picture. If Sigma Lithium’s rebound has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your view and check out 30 best rare earth metal stocks as another way to research opportunities in the broader battery materials space. With production back online, fresh contracts in place and the share price still sitting below the average analyst target of US$17.17, you have to ask: is Sigma Lithium still undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 24.8% Undervalued With Sigma Lithium last closing at $13.35 against a narrative fair value of $17.75, the current setup frames a clear valuation gap for investors to weigh.  Strategic progression on Grota do Cirilo Phase 2 and planned Phase 3 expansion is expected to nearly triple production to 120,000 tonnes LCE by 2027, leveraging existing infrastructure for low incremental CapEx and resulting in long term revenue growth and improved operating margins from economies of scale.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue ramp and margin shift could justify that higher fair value, and how long it might take to show up in earnings and cash flow? The key assumptions in this narrative lean heavily on growth, profitability and the multiple the market might be willing to pay for those future results. Result: Fair Value of $17.75 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still clear execution risk here, including potential delays to Phase 2 ramp up and ongoing exposure to lithium price swings affecting contract economics. Find out about the key risks to this Sigma Lithium narrative. Another Angle: Price To Sales Sends A Different Signal The 24.8% gap to the $17.75 fair value may look appealing, but the current P/S of 10.7x is far higher than the US Metals and Mining average of 2.6x and also above a fair ratio of 1.5x. That is a wide spread, which raises the question of whether expectations are already too high. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqCM:SGML P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Sigma Lithium Narrative If you see the data differently or simply want to stress test your own view, it only takes a few minutes to build a custom thesis and Do it your way. A great starting point for your Sigma Lithium research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready To Hunt For More Investment Ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss out on other opportunities that better match your goals, risk comfort and preferred style of returns.  Target potential bargains that pair quality and price by scanning our list of 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pass fundamental checks. Strengthen your focus on resilience by reviewing the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results) that aim to keep financial risk in check. Zero in on possibilities the market may be overlooking with a screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that still show strong underlying metrics.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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