【券商聚焦】交银国际维持中芯国际(00981)买入评级指存储器涨价对需求影响或相对可控

金吾财讯

Feb 16

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，中芯国际(00981)4Q25收入24.89亿美元，环比增4.5%，高于之前指引上限（+2%），管理层提到晶圆销量和ASP同时环比微增。管理层指引1Q26收入环比持平，略低于市场一致预期的环比略增（VA一致预期为25.4亿美元），毛利率指引维持为18-20%之间。管理层指引2026年全年销售增幅高于可比同业平均。管理层提到部分此前生产消费电子的存储产能或追逐高利润的HBM等产品而进行转化，而新产能在设备交付后或较快完成建设，故总体消费电子存储供需失衡的情况或到3Q26出现改善。2025年资本支出81亿美元，同比增10.5%，高于之前指引同比持平。管理层指引2026年资本支出同比持平，且会增加配套设备采购，并预计增加4万片/月。该机构认为4Q25之后部分设备开始计提折旧或对公司毛利率水平产生一定压力。该机构下调2026/2027年公司毛利率水平到20.2%/21.6%（前值23.0%/23.3%）。该机构同时调整2026/2027年收入预测到106.9/123.6亿美元（前值109.7/122.8亿美元），该机构调整中芯国际目标价到91港元（原93港元），对应3.8倍2026E市净率，该机构继续长期看好晶圆代工国产替代进程，维持买入评级。

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