Assessing Origin Energy's Valuation After Upgraded Guidance And Interim Dividend

Simply Wall St.

Feb 15

Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has caught investor attention after a strong first half result. The company has upgraded its full year guidance for its Energy Markets business, reported higher underlying ...

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The company has upgraded its full year guidance for its Energy Markets business, reported higher underlying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-after-upgraded-guidance-a\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Assessing Origin Energy's Valuation After Upgraded Guidance And Interim Dividend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAssessing Origin Energy's Valuation After Upgraded Guidance And Interim Dividend\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-15 16:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-after-upgraded-guidance-a><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has caught investor attention after a strong first half result. The company has upgraded its full year guidance for its Energy Markets business, reported higher underlying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-after-upgraded-guidance-a\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ORG.AU","symbol_name":"ORIGIN ENERGY LTD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-after-upgraded-guidance-a","article_id":"2611242361","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/1031000-choice2-main-header/1585186666598"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-after-upgraded-guidance-a","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611242361","pubTimestamp":1771143976,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has caught investor attention after a strong first half result. The company has upgraded its full year guidance for its Energy Markets business, reported higher underlying EBITDA and declared a fully franked A$0.30 interim dividend.\nSee our latest analysis for Origin Energy.\nThe upgraded guidance and A$0.30 fully franked interim dividend have coincided with a 5.04% 1 day share price return and a 10.72% 7 day share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ORG.AU":"ORIGIN ENERGY LTD"},"translate_title":"评估Origin Energy上调指引和中期股息后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORG.AU":1.5},"content_text":"Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has caught investor attention after a strong first half result. The company has upgraded its full year guidance for its Energy Markets business, reported higher underlying EBITDA and declared a fully franked A$0.30 interim dividend. See our latest analysis for Origin Energy. The upgraded guidance and A$0.30 fully franked interim dividend have coincided with a 5.04% 1 day share price return and a 10.72% 7 day share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 23.23% and very large 5 year total shareholder return indicate momentum has been building over time, despite a flat 90 day share price return. If this earnings upgrade has you looking beyond Origin, it could be a good moment to hunt for other potential opportunities with our 25 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks. With the shares already near the analyst price target yet trading at a sizeable intrinsic discount, the real question is whether Origin still offers value or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 0% Overvalued At A$12.08, Origin Energy is trading very close to the most widely followed fair value estimate of A$12.03, which is built using a 6.668% discount rate and detailed assumptions about future earnings, margins and valuation multiples.  The analysts have a consensus price target of A$11.908 for Origin Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$13.7, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$10.0.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is baked into that near A$12 fair value? The narrative leans on modest revenue pressure, thinner margins and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together to justify today’s price? Result: Fair Value of A$12.03 (ABOUT RIGHT) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still a couple of watchpoints that could flip this story, such as execution risk in renewables and the global rollout of Kraken and Octopus. Find out about the key risks to this Origin Energy narrative. Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal While our DCF work suggests Origin Energy trades at a sizeable discount to future cash flows, the current P/E of 20.3x tells a different story. It sits above the Global Electric Utilities average of 15.2x, yet well below the peer average of 42.6x and the fair ratio of 34.1x. This hints at both valuation risk and potential catch up. Which side of that gap do you think closes first? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:ORG P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Origin Energy Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to lean on your own work, you can pull the same data and shape a custom view in minutes, then Do it your way. A great starting point for your Origin Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Origin has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. The screener can help you spot other ideas before they move beyond your comfort zone.  Target quality at a discount by scanning for companies that match your criteria using our 12 high quality undervalued stocks. Prioritise staying power by checking out companies with stronger finances through our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (19 results). Hunt for under the radar potential with our screener containing 14 high quality undiscovered gems before other investors catch on.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}