【券商聚焦】交银国际:随着各地细则加速落地 车市景气度有望逐步回暖

金吾财讯
Feb 16

金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布汽车行业月报,1月车市因政策调整及消费透支承压,合资品牌表现相对抗跌。1月全国乘用车零售量为154.4万辆,同比下滑13.9%。自主品牌当月零售89万辆,同比下降18%,市场份额缩窄3.5个百分点至57.5%;合资品牌零售47万辆,同比仅微降4%,其中德系与日系份额分别提升1.4和2.1个百分点至19.8%和15.5%。1月新能源渗透率回落至38.6%,环比下滑20.5个百分点。出口延续强劲势头,新能源占比逼近50%。1月乘用车出口(含整车与CKD)共计57.6万辆,同比增长52.0%,新能源乘用车出口28.6万辆,同比增长103.6%;其占出口总量比重升至49.6%,同比提升12.5ppts。该机构指,1Q26车市受季节性因素叠加前期消费透支影响,整体表现相对平淡。尽管“以旧换新”政策延续提供了底部支撑,但终端观望情绪较重,导致部分需求递延释放。展望后续,随着各地细则加速落地,车市景气度有望逐步回暖。出口方面,受益于中欧、中加关税谈判的积极进展,以及自主品牌全球化战略深入,新能源出海正从单纯的贸易出口向“产业链出海”模式进阶。个股方面,建议关注:小鹏汽车(9868HK/XPEVUS/买入)全新P7/增程车型陆续上市,同时海外本地化生产逐步落地,带动销量和毛利率提升;吉利汽车(175HK/买入)私有化极氪后推动内部资源整合;比亚迪(1211HK/买入)海外产能进入放量期,海外销量的增长有望进一步优化利润结构。

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