'The AI Trade Is Stalling:' Why This Wall Street Expert Is Betting Against The Nasdaq 100

Benzinga_recent_news

Feb 16

The AI trade that powered U.S. equities for three years is losing momentum, and the breakdown in its link to hyperscaler spending may mark a turning point, according to David Woo. In his latest market...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers | Global Stocks, Options & Futures Trading App","description":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","keywords":"tiger brokers,tiger trade,tiger brokers singapore,broker online,stock trading in singapore,share trading singapore,brokerage firm singapore,trading app,stock broker singapore,stock trading platforms,trading account","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2611485070"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2611485070\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2611485070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/02/16/AI--artificial-intelligence.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-02-16 22:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2611485070","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"'The AI Trade Is Stalling:' Why This Wall Street Expert Is Betting Against The Nasdaq 100","media":"Benzinga_recent_news","content":"<div>\n<p>The AI trade that powered U.S. equities for three years is losing momentum, and the breakdown in its link to hyperscaler spending may mark a turning point, according to David Woo.\nIn his latest market...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/02/50637557/david-woo-nasdaq-100-short-trade-ai-risks-hyperscalers-2026-market-risks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The AI Trade Is Stalling:' Why This Wall Street Expert Is Betting Against The Nasdaq 100</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The AI Trade Is Stalling:' Why This Wall Street Expert Is Betting Against The Nasdaq 100\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-16 22:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/02/50637557/david-woo-nasdaq-100-short-trade-ai-risks-hyperscalers-2026-market-risks><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The AI trade that powered U.S. equities for three years is losing momentum, and the breakdown in its link to hyperscaler spending may mark a turning point, according to David Woo.\nIn his latest market...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/02/50637557/david-woo-nasdaq-100-short-trade-ai-risks-hyperscalers-2026-market-risks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NDX","symbol_name":"纳斯达克100指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/02/50637557/david-woo-nasdaq-100-short-trade-ai-risks-hyperscalers-2026-market-risks","article_id":"2611485070","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/02/16/AI--artificial-intelligence.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/02/50637557/david-woo-nasdaq-100-short-trade-ai-risks-hyperscalers-2026-market-risks","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611485070","pubTimestamp":1771251060,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"David Woo says the AI trade is stalling as Nasdaq 100 momentum fades and the long-standing link between AI stocks and hyperscaler capex turns negative.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"“人工智能交易正在停滞：”为什么这位华尔街专家做空纳斯达克100指数","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":1.87,"NDX":1.95},"content_text":"The AI trade that powered U.S. equities for three years is losing momentum, and the breakdown in its link to hyperscaler spending may mark a turning point, according to David Woo.\nIn his latest market update video, the founder of David Woo Unbound and former Bank of America strategist, said the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gone nowhere since October.\nFor Woo, this consolidation may be the calm before a much deeper downturn — potentially a full-blown tech bear market.\nThat view has led him to a bold call that would have seemed unthinkable on Wall Street just months ago: shorting the Nasdaq 100.\nAccording to Woo, the AI trade is at a crossroad. \n“The AI trade may not be crashing—but it is clearly stalling,” he said.\nThe Nasdaq 100 – as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) –  has gone nowhere since last October. \nIts 100-day rolling return is rapidly converging toward zero. The index has not spent this long in a tight range since the COVID era.\nBeneath the surface, leadership is eroding. Only half of Nasdaq 100 stocks trade above their 100-day and 200-day moving averages.\nThe so-called Magnificent 7 have broken key trend lines and now sit below their 100-day moving averages.\n\"We have seen this movie before,\" Woo said.\nSince 2020, there have been three similar periods of tight consolidation after strong rallies. In two cases, the Nasdaq 100 later entered a correction. In the third, it fell 7%.\nWoo said investors are now halfway through fourth-quarter earnings season, with six of the Magnificent Seven reporting.\nThe four-quarter moving average of their combined earnings before interest and taxes slowed to its lowest level since 2023. \nThat happened despite a rebound at Apple.\n\"With the momentum in both stock prices and earning growth fading, the only question is how long before profit taking begins,\" Woo said.\nRetail traders have repeatedly stepped in.\nWoo said buy-the-dip investors saved the AI trade at least five times over the past year. After Microsoft sold off following January earnings, retail buying surged, according to Charles Schwab.\n\"How long will retail investors keep playing the white knight?\" Woo said.\n \"That is the million dollar question.\"\nSince ChatGPT launched in November 2022, hyperscaler capital spending drove the AI trade. Investors treated capex as a proxy for expected returns. \nWoo said the strong correlation between AI stocks and AI-related capex spending reflected two beliefs.\n\"One, that the hyperscalers know better anyone else about the monetizability of AI,\" Woo said.\n\"Two, that the more money the hyperscalers pour into AI related capex, the higher must be the returns on investment that they expect,\" he said.\nWoo said he has long doubted the second assumption. He went short the Nasdaq in September and remains short.\nDuring the latest earnings season, the correlation between AI stocks and capex not only broke down but turned negative.\n\"For the first time in three years, the stocks of the hyperscalers went down, and not up, on the guidance of increased capex spending,\" Woo said.\nHe called it a potential \"watershed moment.\"\n\"What the price action over the past month says to me is that the market no longer trusts higher capex spending to reflect higher returns on investment,\" Woo said.\nWoo said the market may now see rising capex as a cost problem rather than a return signal.\nSpending pressures include high-bandwidth memory chips, transformers, cooling systems, construction materials and grid upgrades. Land prices in power-rich regions and wages for specialized workers have also climbed.\n\"That the hyperscalers are motivated less by greed than by fear,\" Woo said.\nHe added, \"They don't know better than you or I if there is a pot of gold under the rainbow.\"\n\"This is almost a guarantee of over-investment,\" Woo said.\nThe AI music hasn't stopped.\nWoo cited former Citigroup chairman Chuck Prince's 2007 comment: \"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.\"\nYet, as AI-related capex rises far faster than AI-related revenue, Woo sees that gap as unsustainable.\nThe semiconductor bull cycle is already historically extended and the market psychology toward capex is shifting.\nHis concern isn't that AI will fail technologically. It's that the investment cycle may be outrunning the revenue cycle.\n\"What I do know is that when the music stops, there will be no place to hide,\" Woo said.\nFor now, he remains short the Nasdaq 100 and continues to view the bursting of the AI bubble as one of the biggest macro risks heading into 2026.\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}