金吾财讯 | 中烟香港(06055)震荡走强，截至发稿，涨4.72%，报46.16港元，成交额1529万港元。消息面上，长江证券发研报指，中烟香港卷烟出口业务供应链将获大幅优化，分上下游看：1）上游链条：中烟国际直接与交易对手方接洽。若任何交易对手方不具备出口资格，则该实体须委托具备相关出口资格的公司与本公司磋商，并根据框架协议就卷烟出口订立相关个别协议；2）下游链条：中烟国际作为地方工业公司的代理方直接销售卷烟至境内免税市场，明确为唯一流程。根据国家专卖制度、烟草专卖法、法规及60 号文，向独立第三方采购卷烟销售至海外免税市场或中国境内免税市场并不可行。预计后续影响：1）盈利能力有望提升：销售至中国境内免税市场的卷烟采购交易供应链优化，特别是下游链条变化，预计将直接推动卷烟出口业务毛利率提升；2）卷烟出口销售数量：目前中烟国际与交易对手方的协议仍在前期签订谈判过程中，估计交易系统仍在试运行，预计2026H1 卷烟备货、发货可能会阶段性延期，估计2027 年起有望恢复增长。
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