Reaffirmed Outlook, Bigger Buyback and Dividend Might Change The Case For Investing In Open Text (OTEX)

Simply Wall St.

Feb 16

In early February 2026, Open Text Corporation reported second-quarter results showing slightly lower quarterly revenue and earnings, reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue growth target of 1% to 2%, ...

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The combination of softer quarterly performance, continued commitment to dividends, and an expanded buyback program highlights management’s focus on balancing investment in cloud and AI initiatives with returning cash to shareholders. We’ll now examine how Open Text’s reaffirmed guidance and expanded US$500 million buyback program affect its existing investment narrative and risk profile. Explore 23 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.AdvertisementOpen Text Investment Narrative RecapTo own Open Text today, you need to believe its pivot toward cloud and AI can offset pressure from slower legacy businesses and restructuring efforts. The latest quarter’s softer revenue and earnings, combined with reaffirmed low single digit revenue growth guidance, keep that thesis intact in the short term, but they also sharpen the near term focus on execution in cloud growth as the key catalyst and on legacy and cybersecurity weakness as the primary risk. The expanded US$500 million buyback program stands out here, because it directly interacts with the story around earnings growth and capital returns. With the stock recently pulling back and management confirming only modest revenue growth expectations, the pace and scale of repurchases now sit alongside cloud execution as a potential support for earnings per share, even as investors continue to watch restructuring and legacy revenue trends closely. Yet beneath the renewed guidance and larger buyback, you should still be aware of the risk that prolonged weakness in legacy and cybersecurity could... Read the full narrative on Open Text (it's free!)Open Text's narrative projects $5.4 billion revenue and $862.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $426.7 million from $435.9 million today.Uncover how Open Text's forecasts yield a $40.00 fair value, a 63% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesOTEX 1-Year Stock Price Chart While consensus focuses on modest 1.5 percent annual revenue growth and earnings of about US$888.2 million by 2028, the lowest analysts frame these as ambitious in light of persistent legacy and pricing pressures, reminding you that views on Open Text’s risk reward can differ sharply and may shift again after this latest earnings and buyback news.Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Open Text - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!Build Your Own Open Text NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Open Text research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Open Text research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Open Text's overall financial health at a glance.Interested In Other Possibilities?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 34 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 30 stocks are leading the charge.Uncover the next big thing with 29 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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