MW Tax refunds are up this year to an average of $2,290, early IRS numbers show. How does yours compare?

Andrew Keshner

'Average refund amounts are strong,' the IRS said in an explanation of the data

It's the start of a closely watched tax-filing season - and tax-refund season - at the IRS. Here's how it's looking so far.

Americans are scoring larger income-tax refunds than last year, according to the earliest batch of returns filed with the Internal Revenue Service during the first filing season under President Trump's new tax law.

It's a very preliminary sign the new law's bevy of tax breaks could be filtering into Americans' wallets, as Trump vowed they would.

The average refund so far this year was $2,290, a nearly 11% increase from a comparable point last year, the IRS said Friday night. So far, the tax collector has given out 8% fewer refunds than at the comparable point last year.

The tax-return data run through Feb. 6.

"Average refund amounts are strong," the IRS said in an explanation of the data. The refund amounts should continue to increase once the totals include returns that claim the earned-income tax credit and the child tax credit, the IRS said.

The agency said it "continues to see a strong filing season with refunds continuing to reach taxpayers as planned."

Want to know where your refund is? Once someone files their tax return, they can check the status of their refund here.

Earlier Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a CNBC interview that the average refund was up 22%. Bessent didn't say what period he was comparing this year's refunds to.

To be clear, Friday's numbers are only an early look at this year's refunds. The average amounts will shift as the IRS processes more tax returns, and the agency itself noted that there can be large swings in the statistics as filing season progresses. Friday's statistics were based on almost 14% of the approximate 164 million tax returns the IRS expects to receive through April 15.

Refunds last year ended up averaging $3,167, according to the IRS.

Time will tell whether taxpayers' refunds live up to expectations of being larger. A range of estimates say the average tax refund could be up to $1,000 larger this year because of the tax cuts in last summer's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The massive tax law prevented income-tax rates from rising and made some widely used provisions, like the standard deduction and the child tax credit, slightly more generous. The law quadrupled the deduction for state and local tax bills and also added new deductions, including one for senior citizens and others for tipped and overtime workers.

Refunds aren't a full window into a household's tax burden; they're the amount of overpaid taxes. Though many Americans celebrate getting big refunds, financial experts point out that they're nothing to cheer about, because the money represents an interest-free loan the taxpayer has made to the government throughout the year.

Nevertheless, refunds are the single largest payment some households receive each year. With 2026 refunds estimated to be bigger, economists and Wall Street investors are trying to determine their macroeconomic impact.

Financial analysts have been watching for early clues. When H&R Block $(HRB)$ reported earnings earlier this month, CEO Curtis Campbell was asked if predictions of higher refunds were materializing.

Campbell emphasized that it was early in the filing season and noted the new tax breaks taking effect. "I would expect, depending on who you are as a taxpayer, you could see a slightly higher refund," he said.

Not everyone is happy with the size of their refund this year. In social-media posts, some people are complaining that the overtime deduction isn't cutting their bill as much as hoped. If overtime is paid as time and a half, just the "half" counts toward the $12,500 deduction.

The IRS has received more than 1 million fewer returns than it had at the same point last year. The agency expects those numbers of even out as more people collect all their records and tax forms.

JOIN THE DON'T SHORT YOURSELF LIVE Q&A: Tax season stressing you out? We've got you. Join Don't Short Yourself Live to ask MarketWatch's Andrew Keshner and Beth Pinsker your tax questions on Wednesday, Feb. 25, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.

-Andrew Keshner

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February 13, 2026 20:36 ET (01:36 GMT)

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