The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0835 GMT - The U.S. dollar still faces pressure but may find some support in the short term, according to ING's Chris Turner. The emphasis will now shift from the labor market back to inflation readings, the global head of markets says in a research note. These figures need to fall to validate the two rate cuts still priced into money markets this year, he adds. A low interest rate could reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets for some foreign investors. Today's focus will be on the December trade balance. "A narrower-than-expected December trade deficit today would add to expectations of a decent 4Q GDP figure tomorrow and could provide the dollar with a little short-term support," he says. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% at 97.62. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0830 GMT - The Philippine central bank is likely to deliver at least one more 25bps rate cut in the coming months, says Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey. The economy may remain weak amid the ongoing corruption scandal and subdued inflation. Though some indicators point to recovery at the start of the year, CE reckons the scandal's effects will continue to be felt in the near term. "It's also worth noting that the [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] removed the line from its previous statement that 'the monetary policy easing cycle nearing its end', suggesting that it remains open to the idea of further loosening," CE says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0827 GMT - The euro could fall if Friday's eurozone purchasing managers' surveys reinforce doubts over the economic recovery, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. "This would make the euro more vulnerable in the coming weeks if fundamental and price data come in weaker than expected, as speculation about interest-rate cuts could pick up again." It follows Tuesday's German ZEW survey which showed economic sentiment fell in February. This dampened bets that fiscal stimulus will boost growth and the market is now less certain the ECB won't cut rates further, she says. The PMI data therefore could gain importance for the euro, she says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1800 after hitting a near two-week low of $1.1779 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0820 GMT - Interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England could be slower but deeper than markets expect, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja says in a note. Recently released data show the U.K. jobs market is deteriorating and headline inflation is slowing, but core services inflation is still elevated. The mixed data complicate the BOE's role of supporting economic growth and containing inflation close to the 2% target. Deutsche Bank Research expects the BOE to cut interest rates in March and June, but see a risk of deeper cuts, Raja says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - Demand-driven pressures in Malaysia may build as rising disposable incomes and stronger consumption could boost overall spending, RHB economist Chin Yee Sian says in a note. Resilient private consumption, steady investment and supportive government measures are expected to underpin growth. Policy changes, including higher excise duties and potential subsidy reforms, may add upward pressure on food prices, though spillovers should remain manageable if implemented gradually, she reckons. Transport inflation is likely to stay soft in 2026, supported by lower RON95 fuel prices, she says. Global commodity volatility remains a key risk, Chin adds. With stable macroeconomic conditions and manageable inflation, RHB thinks Bank Negara may keep its policy rate at 2.75% in 2026, barring unexpected shocks. It maintains its estimates for inflation in 2026 at 1.8%, compared with 1.4% in 2025. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0809 GMT - Gold prices climb back above $5,000, as inconclusive U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and concerns over potential military escalation in the region boosts the metal's appeal as a safe haven. In early trading, New York futures rise 0.3% to $5,025.90 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.1% to 97.62. "Buyers took advantage of the price drop ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes," ANZ Research analysts say. "Speculative positions are lean, and fresh longs can return as structural drivers are still in place." Meanwhile, silver futures rise 1.3% to $78.61 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0811 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade, matching moves in U.S. Treasury yields, after the Federal Reserve's minutes showed some policymakers could potentially favor increasing rates if inflation were to remain elevated. "Bunds remain supported at key levels but U.S. Treasury pose headwinds this morning," Commerzbank's Erik Liem says in a note. Nonetheless, "a calmer session seems in store" ahead of a raft of eurozone and U.S. data Friday, the rates strategist says. Thursday will see Spanish and French government bond auctions. Preliminary purchasing manager data from France, Germany and the eurozone are due Friday, followed by U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data. The 10-year German Bund yield rises 1.6 basis points to 2.758%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0754 GMT - Bitcoin rises modestly after gains in U.S. equities overnight as tech stocks regained their footing. "Part of the catalyst for the rally were pre-U.S. market reports that Nvidia had agreed to supply Meta with large quantities of processors over the coming years," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The news boosted tech and semiconductor stocks. The equity rally was reinforced by solid U.S. economic data with industrial production and factory output both exceeding expectations, the analysts say. Next up, U.S. weekly jobless claims data at 1330 GMT will be closely watched given their overlap with the February employment survey period, they say. Bitcoin rises 1.4% to $67,202, LSEG data show. Ether is up 2.1% at $1,981. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - The dollar trades near a two-week high as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting last month showed several policymakers were open to potentially raising interest rates if inflation remains elevated. "The mere suggestion that the key interest rate could rise again is obviously making some market participants sit up and take notice," Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. A rate cut in March appears unlikely and the market isn't even fully pricing in two rate cuts this year, she says. Friday's U.S. PCE inflation and fourth quarter U.S. economic growth data could boost the dollar further if they exceed expectations, she says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 97.704, close to an earlier high of 97.777. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - Spain and France will auction a combined up to 20.5 billion euros in government bonds at their bi-weekly auctions on Thursday. Spain will offer 4.5 billion euros-5.5 billion euros in 2029-, 2031- and 2036-dated bonds, with the five-year bond being a new issue. France will conduct two auctions, for nominal and inflation-linked bonds, respectively. In the first one, it will offer 11.5 billion euros-13.5 billion euros in 2029-, 2031- and 2032-dated OATs, with the three-year OAT a new one. In the second sale, it will auction 1 billion euros-1.5 billion euros in 2032-, 2034- and 2040-dated OATei-s, which are indexed to eurozone inflation. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0645 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in a steepening manner in Asian trade after the Federal Reserve's minutes indicated upside risks to inflation. FOMC members anticipate inflation will move toward the 2% target but see risks to the inflation projection again as 'skewed to the upside'. "The FOMC minutes from the January meeting showed officials remained surprisingly cautious about cutting rates, with several even noting that another hike could be warranted if inflation proves sticky," Danske Bank's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. Danske continues to expect the Fed to deliver two more 25-basis-point cuts in June and September. The two-year Treasury yield is up 1.6 basis points at 3.475%, while the 10-year yield rises 2.3 basis points to 4.103%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0633 GMT - Barclays' economists retain their baseline expectation that the Federal Reserve's FOMC will deliver two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, they say in a note. They expect the cuts to be delivered in June and December, after the Fed has gained confidence that inflation is returning toward the 2% goal, the economists say. The minutes, however, added that most participants judged the risk of inflation persistently running above 2% as meaningful, they say. The Fed's minutes, released Wednesday, "reinforce our view that risks around our baseline rate path are skewed to the upside." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 19, 2026 03:35 ET (08:35 GMT)

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