Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0859 ET - If not for an accounting quirk springing from last year's government shutdown, 4Q GDP growth would have been 1 percentage point higher, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. During a shutdown federal workers are temporarily off the job--but because they receive back pay, the government's nominal spending on their compensation doesn't fall. The economic stats record that the government received less of these workers' services, however. As a result, the stats show the government paying the same wages for much reduced labor--effectively, the shutdown looks like a surge in government wage inflation. This increases the inflation-adjustment factor applied to the real GDP growth rate. In other words, the shutdown means that the real GDP growth rate incurs a larger inflation penalty. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0827 ET - The dollar could fall if a potential U.S. Supreme Court decision that rules against tariffs as early as Friday triggers a sharp rise in Treasury yields, Standard Chartered's Steve Englander says in a note. Price action in Treasurys suggest markets expect a ruling that makes it difficult for refunds to be collected by firms, he says. It also suggests the market has confidence there will be clear path to impose tariffs through other channels. If either of these assumptions are wrong, yields could rise sharply on concerns about fiscal damage, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 97.881. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 1 basis point to 4.06%, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0658 ET - Bitcoin's recent falls are driven by weak market sentiment and macroeconomic factors as recent developments in U.S. crypto regulation have reduced policy risk, UniCredit's Investment Institute strategist Thomas Strobel says in a note. Uncredit's position on bitcoin therefore remains neutral, he says. The bank estimates bitcoin's "fundamentally justified value" is about $75,000. "A decline of roughly 35% from that level might increase the risk of a more-structural shift, particularly if accompanied by a prolonged move below $50,000," Strobel says. More positive sentiment and exchange traded fund flows would help bitcoin recover along with a gradual improvement in liquidity conditions, he says. Bitcoin rises 1.3% to $67,807, having reached a 16-month low of $60,008 on Feb.6, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0318 ET - Bitcoin rises modestly as it shows some divergence from falls in U.S. stocks overnight, although its recovery remains tepid in the wake of its recent selloff. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed on U.S. equities. The regional deployment of U.S. aircraft and naval ships raises concerns about a possible strike on Iran. While bitcoin is slightly higher, it continues to trade below its key moving averages, UniCredit's Investment Institute strategist Thomas Strobel says in a note. "While sentiment remains fragile and downside risks persist, a potential recovery cannot be ruled out as broader conditions evolve." Bitcoin climbs 1.3% to $67,812. It has recovered since reaching a 16-month low of $60,008 on Feb.6, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0309 ET - Yields on German government bonds fall and ING analysts say they could be favored over U.S. Treasurys amid worries about a possible U.S. strike on Iran. "Bunds might be preferred over U.S. Treasurys to hide from Iran-related turmoil," they say. President Trump is weighing an initial strike on Iran to force it to meet demands for a nuclear deal. Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft and naval ships have been deployed. "For now, markets are still trying to gauge how much of it is just posturing to strengthen the U.S. negotiation positions," ING's analysts say. Ten-year German Bund yields fall 1.1 basis points to 2.732%. Ten-year Treasury yields are steady at 3.073%, having risen Thursday, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0249 ET - U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after rising on Thursday. The rise came after Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers had little appetite to cut interest rates. But attention now turns to U.S. PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and advance fourth-quarter economic growth data at 1330 GMT, which could impact interest-rate expectations. Weak data could reignite rate-cut expectations, though recent indicators have pointed to a robust economy. Meanwhile, investors brace for a possible U.S. strike on Iran. Treasurys are caught between risk-averse sentiment prompting safe-haven flows and concerns about the potential inflationary consequences of higher oil prices, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The 10-year Treasury yield trades steady at 4.073%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1345 ET - The state of U.S.-Canada trade relations was a hot topic at the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg and USTR chief agricultural negotiator Julie Callahan both told attendees that the goal continues to be to turn the trade flow from a deficit to a surplus for the U.S. President Trump has opened the door that the U.S. could negotiate separate trade deals with Canada and Mexico rather than renegotiate the three-way trade agreement between the countries. As for American wine, spirits and beer being pulled from shelves in most Canadian provinces after President Trump initiated a series of trade battles last year, Lindberg calls it "bad behavior" on Canada's part, making further bilateral negotiations necessary.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1153 ET - Trump administration officials will attempt to address areas where they feel that trade remains unbalanced ahead of a planned joint review of the USMCAscheduled for July. "There are areas of the USMCA that we want to take a look at that will focus more on agricultural trade deficits with Canada and agricultural deficits with Mexico," says Julie Callahan, the chief agricultural negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative. Addressing attendees of the USDA's Agricultural Forum in Arlington, Va., Callahan says that the growth of a trade deficit between the U.S. and Canada is something that re-negotiations will want to address -- namely Canada's dairy tariff-rate quotas, a controversial subject in the agricultural market. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1135 ET - Economists at Desjardins Group say the risks to their Canada interest-rate projections are skewed to the downside over the next few quarters, due to elevated uncertainty over the future of USMCA. A U.S.-led review of the trade pact will move into higher gear this summer, and Trump administration officials complain that talks with are challenging. On rates, Desjardins says it expects strong foreign demand for Canada bonds to compress term premiums and lead to slightly lower yields by the end of 2026. "Look for the yield curve to flatten in the coming quarters," they say. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 20, 2026 09:00 ET (14:00 GMT)

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