Warsh nomination won’t derail gold rally as structural uncertainty persists, says WisdomTree’s Flanagan

Kitco

Feb 19

(Kitco News) - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is likely to continue supporting gold prices, even if some questions about the central bank’s leadership have been resolved...

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The Warsh headline, Flanagan argued, served as an excuse — not a reason — for the correction.“You had this parabolic increase. Some profit taking, consolidation, correction — whatever you want to call it — is healthy for the market,” he said.Markets initially interpreted Warsh’s nomination as a stabilizing force for monetary policy. Flanagan noted that Warsh is viewed as an experienced policymaker who understands the value of central bank independence.“He checks off a lot of good boxes and fully understands the notion of Fed independence,” Flanagan said.Warsh served during conventional monetary policy periods, and also during the 2008 financial crisis, giving investors a sense of familiarity at a time of elevated political scrutiny. But while the nomination may ease fears of direct political interference at the Fed, Flanagan cautioned that it does not eliminate broader uncertainty — nor does it diminish gold’s strategic role.In fact, he suggested the real test could come at Warsh’s first meeting. “If we continue to get strong jobs reports and inflation remains above target, there’s a very good possibility Warsh isn’t going to cut rates,” Flanagan said.If that scenario unfolds, tensions between the White House and the central bank could quickly resurface. Warsh may bring institutional credibility, but he cannot eliminate political friction. And that ongoing tension, Flanagan added, would likely be supportive for gold.At the same time, he dismissed concerns that the Federal Reserve’s independence is at risk. He argued that fears of a politically captured Fed are overstated given the institution’s structure. The Federal Open Market Committee’s composition — 12 voting members, including rotating regional bank presidents — acts as a guardrail against unilateral influence.“The structure of the Fed protects its independence,” he said.Even if additional governors are appointed, Senate confirmation and the balance between regional presidents and governors would prevent sweeping policy shifts. For U.S. investors, that framework should provide reassurance. However, Flanagan acknowledged that non-U.S. investors may be more sensitive to perceived institutional instability and broader concerns about the U.S. dollar.Importantly, even if a resilient economy and sticky inflation prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates this year, Flanagan does not see that as a game-changer for gold. He emphasized that the central bank is closer to the end of its easing cycle than the beginning.“We are at or near the end of this rate cut cycle,” he said.If the Fed delivers one or two additional cuts, they would represent modest adjustments — not a return to ultra-loose policy. A sharp move lower in rates would likely require a recession, which is not WisdomTree’s base case.That shift matters. If the rate-cut narrative is largely behind the market, gold can no longer be defined solely by interest rate expectations. Instead, Flanagan argued, the metal is responding to a broader and more persistent set of forces.Looking beyond monetary policy, he said the key drivers behind gold remain intact, including geopolitical tensions, ongoing trade wars and tariff uncertainty, and sustained central bank buying. Those structural factors, he stressed, did not disappear with the Warsh nomination.“Geopolitics, trade wars, tariffs, central bank buying — they’re all still with us. They didn’t go anywhere,” he said.Perhaps the most important takeaway from Flanagan’s outlook is that gold is no longer reacting to isolated headlines. It is responding to a prolonged environment of layered uncertainty. Tariff rulings, trade negotiations, fiscal expansion, rising global debt levels and political friction between the executive branch and the central bank are not one-off events. They are structural features of the current regime.“Those uncertainties are going to stay with us for the next three years,” Flanagan said, adding that gold is increasingly fulfilling the role of a neutral asset investors can hold amid persistent policy noise.In that sense, Warsh’s nomination does not end uncertainty — it simply changes its form. Markets may gain clarity on Fed leadership, but they are unlikely to gain clarity on trade policy, fiscal expansion or political tensions. That lingering ambiguity — the uncertainty of uncertainty — continues to underpin gold’s strategic appeal.“Gold is no longer being viewed as a tactical allocation. It’s more of a strategic portfolio allocation,” he said.For Flanagan, the recent correction was not the end of gold’s bull market, but rather a healthy pause in a world where regime risks, not rate cuts, are becoming the dominant driver.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}