Nvidia（NVDA）将于2月25日（周三）收盘后公布2026财年第四季度财报。华尔街预计其营收约为657亿美元，同比增长67%，每股收益为1.52美元。尽管有这些预测，该股自2025年8月以来基本处于盘整状态。
宏观背景依然有利。包括微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌（GOOG、GOOGL）、Meta（META）和甲骨文（ORCL）在内的大型超大规模企业，预计2026年的资本支出总额将超过6000亿美元，其中大部分直接与AI基础设施相关。这一资本支出轨迹支撑了Nvidia的增长前景。如果管理层确认客户需求继续超过供应，将强化这样一种观点，即AI基础设施建设仍处于扩张模式，而非消化阶段。
投资者将关注2027财年第一季度的指引，目前估计约为710亿至720亿美元。毛利率预计将保持在73%至75%之间。如果管理层果断上调指引并重申供应限制，盘整局面很可能被向上突破。如果指引只是符合预期，或者出现哪怕一丝关于正常化或定制芯片压力的微妙措辞，那么当前格局就容易出现“利好出尽”式的抛售反应。
责任编辑：张俊 SF065
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