Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)is set to report Q4 earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, with investor sentiment largely tied to its pending acquisition of JDE Peet's rather than near-term fundamentals, UBS Securities said in a report Wednesday.

Investors appear to be taking a "wait and see" approach as the stock's catalyst path depends more on the pending transaction and separation than quarterly results, and they expect no major surprises from the fourth-quarter report, with guidance likely in line with the company's long-term targets and limited deal updates, UBS said.

For the Q4, UBS analysts expect organic revenue growth of about 2.9%, driven by roughly 4.2% pricing gains partly offset by lower volumes, with US coffee volumes "to sequentially worsen" on weaker brewer shipments and US refreshment beverages posting solid growth supported by pricing and "Ghost" contributions, the report said.

For fiscal 2026, UBS said guidance remains uncertain due to deal-related factors, but expects the core business to target mid-single-digit sales growth and high-single-digit earnings per share growth, projecting constant-currency sales to rise about 4.5% and EPS of $2.18, slightly above consensus, according to the report.

UBS has a buy rating on Keurig Dr Pepper and a price target of $35.

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