GXO Logistics (GXO) delivered a strong Q4 and provided a cleaner reset-to-growth framework for 2026, driven more by execution and new wins than a broader macro rebound, Morgan Stanley said Tuesday.

Management issued 2026 guidance of 4% to 5% organic growth, 8% earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth at the midpoint, and nearly 20% earnings per share growth, in line with consensus and at the high end of Morgan Stanley's estimates, the report said.

The company has secured $774 million in incremental revenue for 2026 and its pipeline is valued at approximately $2.5 billion and growing. Combined with Wincanton synergies, GXO can deliver solid results in the second half of 2026 and an even stronger 2027, the investment firm added.

After Q4, the firm raised its fiscal 2026, 2027, and 2028 EPS estimates on GXO Logistics to $3.14, $3.55, and $4.30 from $3.18, $3.55, and $3.75, respectively.

Morgan Stanley raised the price target on GXO to $75 from $70 and maintained an overweight rating.

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