Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Trailing A$433.4m Loss Tests Bullish Margin Recovery Narratives

Simply Wall St.

Feb 17

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has just released its H1 2026 scorecard. Recent halves showed revenue of A$1.57 billion in H1 2025 and A$1.42 billion in H2 2025, alongside basic EPS of A$0.27 and A$...

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Recent halves showed revenue of A$1.57 billion in H1 2025 and A$1.42 billion in H2 2025, alongside basic EPS of A$0.27 and A$...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/food-beverage-tobacco/asx-twe/treasury-wine-estates-shares/news/treasury-wine-estates-asxtwe-trailing-a4334m-loss-tests-bull\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Trailing A$433.4m Loss Tests Bullish Margin Recovery Narratives</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Trailing A$433.4m Loss Tests Bullish Margin Recovery Narratives\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-17 05:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/food-beverage-tobacco/asx-twe/treasury-wine-estates-shares/news/treasury-wine-estates-asxtwe-trailing-a4334m-loss-tests-bull><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has just released its H1 2026 scorecard. Recent halves showed revenue of A$1.57 billion in H1 2025 and A$1.42 billion in H2 2025, alongside basic EPS of A$0.27 and A$...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/food-beverage-tobacco/asx-twe/treasury-wine-estates-shares/news/treasury-wine-estates-asxtwe-trailing-a4334m-loss-tests-bull\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4112","symbol_name":"金融交易所和数据","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/food-beverage-tobacco/asx-twe/treasury-wine-estates-shares/news/treasury-wine-estates-asxtwe-trailing-a4334m-loss-tests-bull","article_id":"2612743326","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/5112000-choice1-main-header/1585186807175"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/food-beverage-tobacco/asx-twe/treasury-wine-estates-shares/news/treasury-wine-estates-asxtwe-trailing-a4334m-loss-tests-bull","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612743326","pubTimestamp":1771276935,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has just released its H1 2026 scorecard. Recent halves showed revenue of A$1.57 billion in H1 2025 and A$1.42 billion in H2 2025, alongside basic EPS of A$0.27 and A$0.27 respectively. This compares with the prior H2 2024 period where revenue was A$1.49 billion and basic EPS was a loss of A$0.08 per share. The company’s trailing twelve month revenue has been between A$2.73 billion and A$3.07 billion across recent periods, with basic EPS ranging from A$0.19 to...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK7505":"食品股","BK7097":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","BLSX":"Tradr 2X Long BLSH Daily ETF","BLSG":"2倍做多BLSH ETF-Leverage Shares","TWE.AU":"TREASURY WINE ESTATES LTD"},"translate_title":"Treasury Wine Estates(ASX：TWE)亏损4.334亿澳元，考验看涨的利润率复苏叙事","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLSX":0.6,"TWE.AU":1.98,"BLSG":0.6},"content_text":"Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has just released its H1 2026 scorecard. Recent halves showed revenue of A$1.57 billion in H1 2025 and A$1.42 billion in H2 2025, alongside basic EPS of A$0.27 and A$0.27 respectively. This compares with the prior H2 2024 period where revenue was A$1.49 billion and basic EPS was a loss of A$0.08 per share. The company’s trailing twelve month revenue has been between A$2.73 billion and A$3.07 billion across recent periods, with basic EPS ranging from A$0.19 to A$0.54, followed by a trailing loss of A$0.53 per share. These figures frame a results season in which investors are focused on how quickly margins might stabilise and the potential drivers of any earnings recovery. See our full analysis for Treasury Wine Estates. With the headline numbers now available, the next step is to compare them with the widely held narratives around Treasury Wine Estates to see which views are supported by the data and which may be less consistent with the latest results. See what the community is saying about Treasury Wine Estates ASX:TWE Earnings & Revenue History as at Feb 2026 AdvertisementTrailing A$433.4 million loss keeps margins under pressure  On a trailing twelve month view to H1 2026, Treasury Wine Estates reported A$2.7b in revenue and a net loss of A$433.4 million, which equates to basic EPS of a A$0.53 loss per share. Consensus narrative talks about a shift toward higher margin luxury and premium labels supporting long term margin expansion, yet the trailing figures still show negative profitability, with the current loss profile sitting against earlier trailing net income of A$436.9 million and A$153.1 million, so investors need to square that with expectations of stronger margins ahead.\n     Analysts expecting earnings of A$605.8 million by around 2028 are effectively assuming a turnaround from the current A$433.4 million loss to solid profits, which is a big swing in absolute terms. The move from prior trailing revenue of A$3.1b and A$3.0b down to A$2.7b also sits awkwardly with the idea of steady revenue progress, so anyone leaning on the consensus view should keep that recent pattern in mind.    DCF fair value of A$14.48 vs A$4.97 share price  The current share price of A$4.97 sits well below a DCF fair value estimate of about A$14.48, and the P/S multiple of roughly 1.5x is lower than both peer and global beverage averages of 1.9x and 1.8x. Bulls point to this gap and argue the stock reflects too much pessimism, yet the same data set flags that losses have increased at about 18.2% per year over the last five years and that revenue growth of roughly 0.6% per year trails an Australian market benchmark of about 6% per year.\n     The bullish view that earnings could grow around 73.21% per year and flip the company back to profit within three years leans heavily on a sharp change from the current A$433.4 million loss and A$0.53 loss per share. For anyone attracted by the apparent discount to DCF fair value, it is worth weighing that valuation gap against the modest trailing revenue trend and the fact that the business is currently unprofitable.    Bulls argue the recent H1 numbers are just a staging point before margins and profits increase, but the current loss profile, modest revenue trend, and large gap to DCF fair value mean the bullish case rests on a meaningful shift from what the trailing figures show today. 🐂 Treasury Wine Estates Bull Case Weak cash flow coverage and dividend pressure worry bears  Risk analysis flags that debt is not well covered by operating cash flow and that the roughly 8.05% dividend yield is not well covered by either earnings or free cash flow, all while the trailing result shows a A$433.4 million net loss. Bears focus on these cash flow and balance sheet pressures, and they also highlight that losses have worsened by about 18.2% per year over five years, yet their own forecast set still assumes the business could reach earnings of around A$580.8 million by 2028 with margins improving from 14.6% to 18.1%.\n     That means even the cautious narrative is built on a move from a A$433.4 million loss today to several hundred million dollars of profit, which is a sizeable change from the recent history flagged in the trailing numbers. Given the current A$4.97 share price, anyone listening to the bearish concerns about cash flow, debt coverage, and dividend sustainability still has to decide how much weight to give those risks against the improvement in profitability that is embedded in the more cautious earnings projections.    Skeptics warn that weak cash generation, debt coverage concerns, and an uncovered dividend leave little room for missteps, so this H1 update is a useful checkpoint to test how realistic those more cautious earnings paths look against the actual loss and balance sheet stress today. 🐻 Treasury Wine Estates Bear Case  Next Steps To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Treasury Wine Estates on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. See the numbers differently? If this update gives you a different angle, you can shape it into your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way. A great starting point for your Treasury Wine Estates research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Explore Alternatives Treasury Wine Estates is working through a A$433.4 million trailing loss, weak cash flow coverage, and a dividend that is not well supported by earnings. If that mix of balance sheet pressure and uncovered payouts feels uncomfortable, you may want to focus on companies in our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (19 results) that put financial strength and cash support for dividends front and center.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Treasury Wine Estates might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}