金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，2026年春节，互联网大厂围绕“AI超级入口”的争夺开启红包大战，以字节、阿里、腾讯、百度为首的互联网巨头构成今年红包大战主力，均将自身AI核心应用豆包、千问、元宝、文心视为红包派发主要根据地，总投入金额超80亿元。千问和豆包领先。该机构指，AI入口胜负手在于基模和生态。春节作为集中营销的窗口，其反映的是巨头对于下一个流量入口的争夺战。营销预算决定的是短期的用户增长，而真正的胜负手在于用户留存，而留存最终取决于基模能力以及AI入口背后的大厂基建/生态支撑。此次春晚各家互联网厂商除了通过补贴实现拉新外，更加重视引导用户形成AI使用路径。今年春节前后大模型密集更新，多模态能力显着增强，Agent工程化能力成为基座模型标配。该机构建议围绕三条主线进行布局。1）关注基模及生态领先的互联网大厂；2）关注上市模型厂商；3）关注内容及IP方，内容及IP方最终会受益于基模的突破，优先关注商业层面率先取得进展的AI?营销、AI?短剧及AI?电商板块。
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