This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.

Tariffs Are Here to Stay

Special Commentary Wells Fargo Feb. 20: The Supreme Court's decision to strike down the administration's broad-based tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, marks a meaningful legal turning point, but not a clean policy reset. The ruling invalidates reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs enacted under IEEPA, opens the door for importers to seek refunds potentially totaling around $130 billion, and sharply curtails the president's authority to impose sweeping tariffs without involvement.

What the decision doesn't do is remove tariffs from the trade policy landscape. Alternative statutory paths remain available to the administration, while none confer the same breadth or immediacy as IEEPA. In fact, President Trump announced today that all existing Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain in effect, and a 10% global tariff takes effect immediately under Section 122. He also announced the start of Section 301 investigations....The Supreme Court ruling doesn't reset trade policy, and President Trump's swift actions signal tariffs are here to stay even if they are adjusted in coming months.

Shannon Grein, Tim Quinlan

GDP: Stronger Than It Looks

Economic Update Regions Financial Feb. 20: The Bureau of Economic Analysis' initial estimate shows real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, below what we (1.8%) and the consensus (2.8%) anticipated. Right off the bat, there are two points to make here. One, as we had for some time cautioned would be the case, the federal government shutdown was a meaningful drag on fourth-quarter growth, knocking 1.15 percentage points off top-line real GDP growth, most of which will be made up for in the Q1 2026 data. Two, the GDP Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 3.6%, much faster than we and the consensus anticipated, although this too was impacted (biased higher) by the shutdown, and this too will be reversed in Q1 2026.

The spike in the GDP Price Index depressed measured real GDP growth, with nominal GDP having grown at a 5.1% rate in Q4. We routinely note that we consider real private domestic demand -- combined business and household spending adjusted for price changes -- as the more reliable guide to the underlying health of the U.S. economy, and that is especially the case with the Q4 data, given the impact of the shutdown. Real private domestic demand grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in Q4, a bit lighter than we anticipated, but we wouldn't be surprised to see this revised higher.

Richard F. Moody

Two Wobbly Pillars

Market Update Cresset Feb. 19: The U.S. economy sits atop two increasingly narrow pillars. On the investment side, artificial intelligence capital expenditure has become the dominant driver of business spending growth, with technology investment contributing roughly a third of overall GDP growth in 2025. On the consumption side, the top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, the highest share in decades, fueled by equity-market wealth effects that are themselves tied to the same AI-driven technology companies. These twin concentrations aren't independent risks; they are deeply intertwined, creating a reflexive loop in which AI investment inflates asset values, asset values underwrite consumer confidence among the wealthy, and their spending props up an economy whose broader foundations are quietly eroding.

Jack Ablin

The Fed Achieves Nirvana

Quick Takes Yardeni Research Feb. 18: The Federal Reserve achieved its congressional dual mandate in January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and the CPI inflation rate was down to 2.4% year over year. Those round down to what we call Nirvana readings -- i.e., the low unemployment level of 4.0% and the Fed's inflation target of 2.0%. Fed officials should celebrate and go on a long vacation. They can leave the federal-funds rate alone at its current 3.50%-3.75%. By their own definition, that must be the "neutral" FFR, the level that is consistent with full employment and stable prices. Why mess with success?

Ed Yardeni

Inside Berkshire's 13F

Letter Glenview Trust Feb. 18: In the fourth quarter, Berkshire Hathaway added one new holding, New York Times, Class A. This purchase is fascinating and seems contradictory, with Berkshire Hathaway's complete exit from the newspaper business in 2020 when it sold its properties to Lee Enterprises. However, Warren Buffett [has noted] that some newspapers have successfully transitioned to digital media with a strong brand. With a value of $352 million, Berkshire's stake in the New York Times is its thirtieth-largest position and accounts for only about 0.13% of the U.S. publicly traded stock portfolio. Notably, at this small size, this was unlikely to have been a purchase initiated by Buffett.

Berkshire added in the quarter to its positions in Chubb, Domino's Pizza, Sirius XM, Chevron, and Lamar Advertising--A. Berkshire has usually had no real estate companies, but that changed in the second quarter of 2025 with the purchase of Lamar Advertising-A. Lamar isn't a typical real estate company, though, as it owns and operates outdoor advertising.

As noted previously, Berkshire reduced its positions in Apple and Bank of America. Constellation Brands, AON--Class A, Pool Corp., Amazon.com, Liberty Latin America--Class A, Atlanta Braves Holdings--Class C, and DaVita were also trimmed. Notably, Berkshire entered into an agreement with DaVita in 2024 under which DaVita will buy back shares quarterly from Berkshire when its stake exceeds 45%. Nine holdings were trimmed, a relatively high number for Berkshire in a quarter, and may reflect reductions in positions favored by Todd Combs [who is leaving for JPMorgan].

Bill Stone

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February 20, 2026 22:51 ET (03:51 GMT)

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