高盛-中国资产配置:去年学到的教训(对投资者的意义)

finn的投研记录
Feb 22

首先,中国分化的经济结构允许同时存在看涨和看跌的叙事,每一方都能在数据中找到支持的证据,因此投资者应仔细、全面地审视数据,以获得对中国经济的完整而准确的认识。例如在2010年代房地产市场扩张期间,官方服务业PMI通常高于非官方服务业PMI,而随着房地产行业进入下行期(图表10),这一关系最近已经逆转。正如不应仅根据非官方服务业PMI对中国服务业过于乐观一样,同样重要的是不能仅根据官方服务业PMI就...

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