Bitcoin’s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount—And It’s Only Rising: Research

Bitcoinist

Yesterday

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers | Global Stocks, Options & Futures Trading App","description":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","keywords":"tiger brokers,tiger trade,tiger brokers singapore,broker online,stock trading in singapore,share trading singapore,brokerage firm singapore,trading app,stock broker singapore,stock trading platforms,trading account","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2613241402"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2613241402\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2613241402?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/btc_ef52e8.png?resize=350%2C250","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-02-21 18:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2613241402","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Bitcoin’s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount—And It’s Only Rising: Research","media":"Bitcoinist","content":"<div>\n<p>Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure\n\nNew research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoins-fair-20-quantum-discount-rising-research/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"bitcoinist_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin’s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount—And It’s Only Rising: Research</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin’s Fair Value Faces 20% Quantum Discount—And It’s Only Rising: Research\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-21 18:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoins-fair-20-quantum-discount-rising-research/><strong>Bitcoinist</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure\n\nNew research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoins-fair-20-quantum-discount-rising-research/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BITO","symbol_name":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoins-fair-20-quantum-discount-rising-research/","article_id":"2613241402","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/btc_ef52e8.png?resize=350%2C250"],"rights":{"source":"bitcoinist_highlight","url":"https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoins-fair-20-quantum-discount-rising-research/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2613241402","pubTimestamp":1771669858,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"bitcoinist_highlight","name":"Bitcoinst"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"New research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bitcoinist.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares"},"translate_title":"比特币的公允价值面临20%的量子折扣——而且只会上升：研究","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BTC":0.6,"BITX":0.6,"BITO":0.6},"content_text":"Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure\n\nNew research shows Bitcoin is facing a discount of about 20% due to the Quantum Computing threat, and it could rise further without an upgrade.\nBitcoin Quantum Discount Could Hit 60% By 2028\nCapriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has published a new research piece on how the Quantum Computing risk could discount the fair value of Bitcoin. Quantum Computing is an upcoming technology that could, in theory, be used to break into certain old BTC wallets.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRelated Reading: Bitcoin Losses Now Equal 19% Of Market Cap, Echoing May 2022\n“A quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of Bitcoin,” noted Edwards. The analyst further added:\n“Trust the code” and “hard money” value propositions would be crippled overnight as up to 30% of all Bitcoin supply (the coins with exposed public keys) are stolen and liquidated.\nCurrently, it’s yet unknown when Quantum Computing will advance enough to be able to compromise BTC’s cryptography (an event known as the “Q-Day”), but there has been an increasing amount of discourse surrounding the topic.\nEdwards, who has been a vocal voice about the issue in the Bitcoin community, has argued that, given the Quantum threat, logical market participants must now discount the asset’s fair value by a “Quantum Discount Factor.”\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe research article describes this metric as the number of years to upgrade BTC against the threat subtracted from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring by year. To find the probability of Q-Day taking place, Edwards has referred to estimates from various experts.\nBelow is the compiled data of these predictions.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe probability of Q-Day occurring by year | Source: @caprioleio on Substack\nAs is visible in the chart, there is a 60% chance that Q-Day could occur by 2030 and about 80% that it could happen by 2031. All of the predictions put it as happening sometime in the next nine years (2035 and before).\nAs for how long it could take to upgrade Bitcoin, the article puts a realistic estimate at approximately two years. “In an extremely optimistic and aggressive scenario this might be feasible in 1 year, but is more likely to be closer to 3 years, as the below diagram elicits,” said Edwards.\nPutting both the estimations together, the analyst has mapped out the Quantum Discount Factor for the digital asset.\n\nHow the Quantum Discount Factor will rise with each year | Source: @caprioleio on Substack\nFrom the graph, it’s apparent that the 2026 Quantum Discount Factor sits at 20% for Bitcoin. This means that the fair value of the asset should be 20% lower today due to the Quantum risk.\nRelated Reading: Bitcoin Activity Plummets: New & Active Addresses Both Down 40%+ Since 2021\nIn the scenario that no action is taken for proofing the network against the threat, the discount will increase to nearly 40% by 2027. The figure will rise further to about 60% in 2028 and 75% in 2029.\nBTC Price\nAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down 2% in the last seven days.\n\nLooks like the price of the coin has been moving flat | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView\nFeatured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com\n\n\n\nEditorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}