MW Will the U.S. give tariff refunds after the Supreme Court decision? What we know so far.

By Robert Schroeder and Victor Reklaitis

Will there be tariff refunds now? Demonstrators are shown protesting on Nov. 5 outside of the U.S. Supreme Court's building in Washington as justices heard arguments over whether a wide swath of President Donald Trump's tariffs were lawful.

The Supreme Court's decision striking down most of President Donald Trump's tariffs left at least one big question unanswered: What about refunds?

Trump no longer has authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose certain levies on global trading partners, even as his sector-based duties remain intact. Companies, shoppers and investors are now wondering what happens to the money that has been paid to the government via these tariffs. How would any refunds be paid, and to whom?

Read: Supreme Court rejects Trump's tariffs. Here's what the president could try to use instead.

Fresh from a decision at the nation's highest court, the matter appears poised to fall to other courts and a key agency for a resolution.

"Lower courts will probably provide procedures for refunds, and they're unlikely to be automatic, meaning some importers may waive their right to refunds," said Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Holly Froum and Poonam Goyal in a note. The procedure for refunds that a court or the Customs and Border Protection agency will establish is likely to "require some type of process," and an estimated $170 billion that has been collected is unlikely to be all refunded, the analysts added.

Other estimates for the sums involved are similar. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., said in a social-media post that the ruling could mean $100 billion to $130 billion in refunds to corporations.

One important point is that the Supreme Court's majority opinion was "silent on refunds," according to Evercore ISI analysts led by Sarah Bianchi, a former deputy U.S. trade representative.

"Given that the Supreme Court didn't provide direction, it will be a bit more chaotic," the Evercore team wrote in a note. They predicted that the "process of sorting out refunds will likely take months and be a legal and bureaucratic morass in its own right."

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh also warned about trouble ahead due to refunds in a dissenting opinion that was released Friday along with the majority's decision. "As was acknowledged at oral argument, the refund process is likely to be a 'mess,'" Kavanaugh wrote.

"Kavanaugh was frustrated that the majority didn't address the refund issue," said Terence Lau, dean of Syracuse University's law school and a former trade attorney for Ford Motor $(F)$. Lau also told MarketWatch that "winning the legal argument and getting money back are very different things," with smaller importers likely facing more challenges.

He said importers who already have filed U.S. Court of International Trade protective actions "have a clear path through court-ordered reliquidation," but the "vast majority who did not face a patchwork of procedural options."

"This will hit unevenly," Lau added, noting that big players have been diligent with recording Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes for their imports. "Large importers have been tracking IEEPA duties by HTS code for months. Small and midsize businesses that depend on customs brokers may struggle."

In addition, the Syracuse dean said the dollar amounts involved are at a scale that Customs and Border Protection "has never processed." Importers "should work with trade counsel now to assess refund posture and preserve claims," Lau said.

It's likely that the Court of International Trade will play a pivotal role in the administration of a refund process, and IEEPA refunds should become available to all importers of record that paid IEEPA tariffs directly to Customs and Border Protection, said Kelsey Christensen, a trade attorney at law firm Clark Hill, in an email to MarketWatch.

"There has been a stay in place at the CIT on all IEEPA refund lawsuits that were previously filed at that court," Christensen said. "We expect the stay to be lifted shortly after today's Supreme Court decision, in a manner that allows the CIT to evaluate and conduct the refund process in a coordinated and organized manner. We expect the CIT will proceed carefully and with intention to create as organized a process as possible."

What some businesses are saying

Friday's decision leaves the possibility Trump could use other tariffs as part of his economic arsenal. It also immediately dials up pressure on the White House from consumers and businesses who are seeking payback.

We Pay The Tariffs, a coalition of small businesses that has spoken out against the tariffs, said the trade war has put hiring and expansion plans on hold over the past year. In a letter, the group urged the president and lawmakers to issue automatic tariff refunds, saying the extra money would help them pay down debt and resume growth.

Many businesses have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds. But the group suggested that their larger counterparts would have an easier time pursuing those refunds in court.

"We do not have large legal departments or customs teams," they said in the letter. "We cannot afford to hire lawyers, navigate complex claims processes, or spend months filing paperwork to recover money that never should have been collected."

The group added: "We cannot wait years for relief."

Some legal experts, meanwhile, emphasized that the case for refunds is clear.

"Everyone who paid duties is entitled to a refund," said Jennifer Hillman, a former general counsel at the U.S. Trade Representative. "They are custom duties collected without authority. They have to be refunded. They were not lawfully collected," Hillman, now at Georgetown University, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

Joseph Adinolfi, William Peters and Greg Robb contributed.

-Robert Schroeder -Victor Reklaitis

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February 20, 2026 12:29 ET (17:29 GMT)

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