Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Share Price Run?

Simply Wall St.

Feb 27

If you are wondering whether BHP Group is still reasonably priced or already looking stretched, you are not alone. This valuation-focused review will unpack that question for you. The stock last ...

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This valuation-focused review will unpack that question for you. The stock last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Share Price Run?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Share Price Run?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 08:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether BHP Group is still reasonably priced or already looking stretched, you are not alone. This valuation-focused review will unpack that question for you. The stock last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4585","symbol_name":"ETF&股票定投概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong","article_id":"2614000950","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614000950","pubTimestamp":1772153519,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether BHP Group is still reasonably priced or already looking stretched, you are not alone. This valuation-focused review will unpack that question for you.\nThe stock last closed at A$57.75, with returns of 8.5% over 7 days, 16.1% over 30 days, 26.2% year to date, 50.5% over 1 year, 40.0% over 3 years, and 81.8% over 5 years. 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The stock last closed at A$57.75, with returns of 8.5% over 7 days, 16.1% over 30 days, 26.2% year to date, 50.5% over 1 year, 40.0% over 3 years, and 81.8% over 5 years. These figures naturally raise questions about what is already built into the price. Recent coverage of BHP Group has continued to focus on the company as a key name in the global materials sector and a reference point for investors watching large cap resource stocks. This ongoing attention helps frame the recent share price moves as investors weigh sector sentiment, commodity exposure and broader market conditions. BHP Group currently scores 3 out of 6 on our valuation checks. We will break this down across methods like P/E, asset-based metrics and cash flow models. Later in the article we will look at a broader way to think about valuation that goes beyond a single score.  Find out why BHP Group's 50.5% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes forecasts of the cash a business may generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today, to estimate what the business could be worth now. For BHP Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The company’s latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at $10.33b. Analyst and extrapolated estimates suggest free cash flow of $11.15b by 2030, with a series of annual projections between now and then that are progressively discounted to reflect risk and the time value of money. When these projected cash flows are added up and discounted, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of A$39.21 per share. Compared with the recent share price of A$57.75, this particular DCF output implies the shares are about 47.3% above that estimate, so on this measure the stock screens as overvalued rather than cheap. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BHP Group may be overvalued by 47.3%. Discover 9 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group. Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like BHP Group, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it ties the share price directly to the earnings that shareholders ultimately rely on. Investors usually expect a higher P/E when they see stronger growth potential or lower risk, and a lower P/E when growth looks limited or risks feel higher. BHP Group is trading on a P/E of 20.37x. That sits below the Metals and Mining industry average of 24.38x and also below a peer group average of 32.10x. On the surface, that suggests the market is paying less for each dollar of BHP Group’s earnings than for many comparable companies. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for BHP Group is 31.13x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a P/E might look like once you factor in elements such as earnings growth, profit margin, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it adjusts for these fundamentals, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or a broad industry average. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 31.13x with the current P/E of 20.37x, BHP Group screens as undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 2 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which simply means writing down your story for BHP Group, linking it to a set of revenue, earnings and margin assumptions, and then seeing how that story translates into a Fair Value you can compare to the current share price. On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and give you a straightforward way to connect the dots. You describe what you think is happening with BHP Group, the platform turns that into a financial forecast and Fair Value estimate, and you can quickly see whether your view suggests the shares look cheap or expensive at today’s price. The power of Narratives is that they respond when new information arrives. If BHP Group reports results or there is fresh news on projects like Jansen or copper expansion, the underlying numbers and Fair Value update so your story and your valuation stay aligned without you rebuilding a model each time. You can already see how this works by comparing existing Narratives on BHP Group. One Community member has a higher Fair Value around A$57.64 based on stronger revenue growth and wider profit margins, while another has a lower Fair Value near A$38.25 using more cautious assumptions. The current Fair Value of about A$55.50 from another view sits in between, which shows how different yet reasonable stories can lead to very different conclusions when you line them up against today’s price of A$57.75. Do you think there's more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}