金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，2026年两会召开在即，政府工作报告和“十五五”规划纲要即将公布。作为“十五五”时期的开局之年，2026年的政策定调格外关键。结合前期召开的地方两会以及节后开展的正确政绩观学习教育，该机构认为，坚持高质量发展、统筹内外均衡、坚守底线思维是2026年的政策主线。其一，2026年政府工作目标设定将更加务实，GDP增速目标或调整为4.5~5.0%。其二，宏观政策保持连续性、稳定性，财政保持必要支出强度，一本账预算支出有望突破30万亿元，货币政策积极配合财政协同发力，降准、降息仍有空间。其三，扩大内需继续作为年度头号任务，中央投入更多资源支撑内需，地方“因地制宜发展新质生产力”和“防范化解重大风险”两手抓。
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