Adds forecasts and inputs from JP Morgan
Feb 25 (Reuters) - JP Morgan raised its long-term forecast for gold prices on Wednesday by 15% to $4,500 an ounce, while keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.
In a note to clients, the bank cited increased central bank buying, public announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment and countries shifting revenue bases away from the dollar and into Chinese renminbi.
In view of these factors, the bank said it upped its weighting for the "reserve currency paradigm shift" and "significant investor diversification", leading to its long-term forecast of $4,500 an ounce.
Macquarie Group earlier this month lifted its average first-quarter 2026 gold forecast to $4,590 an ounce, up from $4,300 previously and hiked its second-quarter estimate to $4,300 from $4,200. It also raised its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,323 per ounce, compared with an earlier estimate of $4,225.
Spot gold XAU= has risen about 20% this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday that was off its January 29 all time high of $5,594.82.
That followed a 2025 surge of more than 64% in the traditional safe-haven metal.
Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agency | Annual Price Forecast | Price Targets | Forecast as of |
2026 | |||
J.P. Morgan* | $6,300 | Expects prices reaching $6,300 by 4Q26, raises long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 | February 25, 2026 |
Macquarie Group | $4,323 | Expects prices to average $4,590 in first quarter and $4,300 in second quarter | February 5, 2026 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute* | Expects $6,100-$6,300 by end of 2026 | February 4, 2026 | |
UBS | - | Raises target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026 | January 29, 2026 |
Deutsche Bank | $5,500 | $6,000 in 2026 | January 26, 2026 |
- | $6,000 by the end of 2026 | January 26, 2026 | |
$4,600 | Bull case is $5,700 for second half of 2026 | January 23, 2026 | |
Goldman Sachs | - | $5,400 by December 2026 | January 22, 2026 |
Citi Research | $5,000 | Raises 0-3 month price target to $5,000 | January 13, 2026 |
$4,587 | $4,450 by year-end 2026 | January 8, 2026 | |
ANZ | $4,445 | $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Bank of America | $4,438 | 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 | October 13, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | $4,488 | - | October 13, 2025 |
Commerzbank | $4,900 | $4,800 by mid-2026 | January 13, 2026 |
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Noel John and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)
((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))