金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，马年春节消费延续分化表现，整体符合预期，其中酒店、景区、高端酒等呈现较优景气度，受出行分流的部分影响，零售、票房等表现总体一般。该机构观点维持，“低预期低估值”+“消费韧性特征下的企稳趋势”预计将提升消费配置的资金偏好，复盘过去三十年四轮牛市行情中的消费表现可见，消费往往在经济基本面开始回暖时有所表现，而自身的盈利弹性决定其上涨的持续性和空间。该机构判断2026年将是消费行业景气度拐点确立的关键之年。由于当前宏观环境仍然偏弱，消费景气的自身修复预计仍需时间，短期消费整体beta性机会可关注财政刺激类政策的可能性。该机构认为投资配置可坚持“杠铃策略”：一端通过服务消费博弈政策弹性及财富效应传导；另一端通过高股息资产构建防御底仓，同时密切关注CPI转正带来的餐饮供应链量价齐升机会。而长期配置继续重视消费结构的变化，在新产品/品类（情绪和健康两大高确定性需求）、新技术（AI+和生物技术）、新渠道（性价比需求下的渠道变革）、新市场（国际化和下沉）四大方向长期布局，重点包括IP产业链、宠物、美妆香氛、旅游、户外、健康饮料、AI+等子行业。
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