MW Nine out of 10 bets this fund manager made outperformed over the past year. Here's his next two plays.

By Jamie Chisholm

Gold miners, Japanese equities and nuclear stocks boosted Man Group's portfolio

Surging Japanese stocks was one of the portfolio's big winners

Markets are about to enter March, and yet only twice - by small fractions - has the S&P 500 closed outside its 6,800 to 7,000 range in 2026.

There's been some frantic action beneath the surface, though, as traders try to figure out the longer term impact on companies from the AI boom.

Our call of the day comes from a fund manager who also takes a longer term view, and so far he's done very well.

At the end of 2024, Henry Neville, a multiasset portfolio manager at hedge fund Man Group, set out his 10 investment ideas for the next 10 years.

These were: a weaker dollar and stronger gold; more power from nuclear; Japanese stocks rising as the market becomes more westernized; increased global defense spending; energy squeezes becoming more prevalent; increased automation; states spending more on infrastructure; sharp increases in energy use (electricity); an aging global demographic; and the rise of the Indian middle class.

Various stock baskets were used to exploit these themes, such as buying gold (GC00) and uranium miners to benefit from rising bullion prices (GC00) and the shift to nuclear, respectively. Oil and gas services companies like Halliburton $(HAL)$ were picked to track the energy build-out trend, for example.

The chart below shows the performance of those baskets relative to the MSCI World Total Return equity index. Nine of the trades outperformed, with only India disappointing. Indeed, from the start of 2025 to Feb. 11 2026, the compound annual growth rate for Neville's "10 for 10" portfolio was 52%, more than double the MSCI World's 22.1%.

10 for 10 baskets, performance versus MSCI World. Source: Man Group.

However, Neville accepts that a portfolio with a 10-year time horizon can't just be left alone, and that because "a theme's unfolding is rarely linear, we should at least consider adjustments."

He notes that six of the 10 theme's valuations have become notably more expensive, particularly Japan, energy and gold "as events have concentrated the market mind on the relevant thesis."

Consequently, he's keeping a wary eye on the nuclear basket: "The nuclear move is something of an illusion, given there are very few publicly listed names in the uranium complex, and our basket contains just five names and is therefore prone to nonsensical moves." He notes that Cameco $(CCJ)$, viewed as the industry bellwether, has rerated from a price to earnings multiple of 44 times to 72 times.

Neville also says that gold is very expensive, whether using valuation metrics such as inflation-adjusted price, multiple of extraction cost, other commodity relatives or proportion of global wealth. But gold miners such as Newmont $(NEM)$ remain reasonably priced, he contends, considering their cost of extraction is the equivalent of $1,500 an ounce. "The catch-up is still on, in my view," he adds.

Readers will note that there is no direct exposure to AI via hyperscalers, such as Alphabet $(GOOG)$, in Neville's portfolio. "Many of these names have gone from being free cash flow saints to sinners, and the market is starting to get concerned. Meanwhile, the gold miners have cruised in the other direction," he says.

Meanwhile, Neville is considering a couple of new baskets for his portfolio. One is industrial metals, aluminum and copper in particular, which are clear beneficiaries of the electrification story, he says. Copper (HG00) "is subject to large demand/supply imbalances in favor of a rally."

The other contender is cybersecurity, which as a sector is down some 25% from the highs as it has been "caught up in the 2026 software neurosis," he says. Some cybersecurity names are part of his defense basket, but he's considering adding the sector explicitly as it's trading on a 22 times forward price/earnings, almost half the 40 times historic average.

One way for investors to play cybersecurity is via the Global X Cybersecurity ETF BUG.

Neville is skeptical that businesses will be fiddling around with AI products to create their own cybersecurity. "It's one thing to vibe code your PowerPoint. It's quite another to Claude-strap your firewall."

The markets

U.S. stock-index futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are lower as benchmark Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dip. The dollar index DXY is down a fraction, while oil prices (CL.1) are higher and gold futures (GC00) are trading around $5,195 an ounce.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6908.86    0.68%   -0.86%  0.93%   17.87% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     22,878.38  0.86%   -3.41%  -1.56%  23.37% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     3.994      -9.70   -24.40  -17.80  -22.60 
   Gold                                                                 5195.3     1.27%   5.83%   19.92%  81.19% 
   Oil                                                                  66.29      -0.05%  0.84%   15.47%  -5.23% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

Netflix shares $(NFLX)$ are jumping after the streaming giant said it would abandon its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery $(WBD)$, leaving Paramount Skydance $(PSKY)$ most likely to buy the movie maker.

CoreWeave shares (CRWV) are diving after a widening net loss revived concerns about the data center company's business model.

Dell Technologies stock $(DELL)$ is popping after the server and personal computer maker revealed record earnings.

Block shares (XYZ) are surging after the parent company of Square and the Cash App said it would lay off nearly half its workforce as it embraces AI.

The U.S. government has warned it will rip up its agreements with Anthropic if the AI startup fails to reach a deal with the Pentagon, according to the Financial Times.

U.S. economic data due Friday include producer prices for January, released at 8:30 a.m., and construction spending for December at 10:00 a.m.

Geopolitical tensions are high after Pakistan bombed Afghanistan and talks continue between the U.S. and Iran over the latter's nuclear ambitions.

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The chart

The S&P 500 SPX so far this year has been spinning its wheels near record highs, though amid much sector volatility. But according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, this is typical political-seasonality. "Yes, stocks in the U.S. have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years," he said, in a post on X.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   NFLX    Netflix 
   GME     GameStop 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   INFY    Infosys 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 
   MSFT    Microsoft 
   AMZN    Amazon.com 

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 27, 2026 06:46 ET (11:46 GMT)

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