By Jennifer Hiller

Coal-fired power generation is having something of a moment. It isn't clear just how long it will last.

President Trump is trying to throw a lifeline to coal, the once-dominant fuel source for the U.S. power grid that has been in steep decline for more than 15 years. His efforts, combined with the boom in construction of power-hungry artificial-intelligence data centers, could keep coal plants that were once slated for retirement operating years longer than expected.

The Trump administration has ordered an expansion of coal mining, leasing and exports, while requiring a handful of power plants to continue operating past their expected retirement dates.

Trump touted coal on the campaign trail and included it in his day-one executive order declaring an energy emergency. An electricity capacity crunch has emerged as new artificial-intelligence data centers strain power supplies.

"I don't use the word coal," Trump said at a White House event this month. "It needs a PR job because it had a bad reputation for a while. It has to be preceded by 'beautiful, clean' coal. We're cleaning it up."

Extreme weather and gas price spikes have created recent openings for coal. Coal generation increased about 13% in 2025 from the previous year as higher natural gas costs made coal more competitive, according to the Energy Information Administration. In January, coal generation soared again as a winter storm brought freezing temperatures to much of the country and natural-gas prices rose.

The National Mining Association has pointed to those events and said access to coal-fired generation has helped keep the lights on and prevent greater spikes in customer bills.

"The cost of our AI-powered future is showing up on Americans' electricity bills; states with greater access to coal generation are in a much better position to manage that price volatility," said Rich Nolan, president and chief executive of the association.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright last week called coal the "MVP of recent winter storms" while renewing an emergency order to keep a coal plant in Michigan operating.

"The energy sources that perform when you need them most are inherently the most valuable," Wright said.

Although the AI boom has helped create a window of opportunity for coal, it won't be long-lived, said Gary Dorris, chief executive and founder of Ascend Analytics, which forecasts power prices and provides software for financial modeling and resource planning.

"The economics of this are a gravitational force that can't be ignored by or overwritten by politics," Dorris said.

Particularly in markets west of the Mississippi River, renewable energy projects can push wholesale electricity prices sharply lower, or even negative, for several hours every day. Generators pay grid operators to take power. Coal plants, which can't easily shut down and restart, either operate at a loss during those hours or ramp down to levels that are inefficient and cause mechanical wear and tear, Dorris said. That makes coal operations difficult to sustain.

"The question becomes, how long and at what rate will the legacy coal continue into the future?" Dorris asked.

The Rhodium Group estimates that economywide emissions increased 2.4% in 2025, growing faster than the overall economy. A colder winter drove more space heating and fuel use in buildings, while in the power industry coal generation grew.

Power plant stacks emitted more sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide last year, according to an analysis of government data.

Coal was once the largest fuel source for electricity generation in the U.S. but began a steep slide around 2008. A surge in domestic natural gas supplies unleashed by the shale boom undercut coal's economics, as did cheap renewables, while state environmental policies accelerated the shift away from coal. Hundreds of plants closed.

Expenses at a coal plant are roughly double that of a natural gas plant, according to Energy Department data. They might require a few hundred workers versus dozens. Between 2011 and 2019, more than 100 coal plants were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Jim McMahon, head of the energy practice at Charles River Associates, said the closures were driven by a combination of high costs, the availability of cheaper renewables and an era of flat electricity demand. Many utilities and plant operators independently made the decision to close their coal plants.

"Suddenly everyone took action and many coal plants were on the chopping block or getting retired," McMahon said. "And then you had all this growth. Capacity became king."

Projections for future electricity demand vary widely, but all forecasts point up. Consulting firm ICF expects U.S. power demand to rise 25% by 2030 from 2023's levels, largely because of data center needs.

The Trump administration's latest action to boost coal came last week with the rollback of mercury and other toxic emission standards for coal-fired power plants. The move reverses more stringent Biden-era standards to levels established in 2012.

The president recently signed an executive order that directs the Defense Department to buy electricity from coal plants and issued federal awards for retrofits and upgrades at power plants in West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Kentucky.

Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners consider the actions by the Trump administration "more likely to extend lifetimes for existing coal mining and generation assets than spur new investment."

Units at 29 coal-fired power plants are slated for retirement through 2028, according to ClearView. So far, four of those plants are operating under emergency orders to stay open, while the Tennessee Valley Authority this month reversed plans to close two coal plants.

Still, even as U.S. electricity generation is set to climb 1.4% this year and 2.5% next, the spoils will largely bypass coal, the EIA projects.

Solar and wind output are expected to rise. So is hydropower following two historically dry summers. Coal-fired power generation could fall by 6% this year and 4% in 2027, with some plants retiring or remaining idle while still connected to the grid, the EIA said.

Write to Jennifer Hiller at jennifer.hiller@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 28, 2026 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)

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