A Look At China Qinfa Group (SEHK:866) Valuation After Guidance For A 2025 Loss

Simply Wall St.

Feb 28

China Qinfa Group (SEHK:866) has issued new earnings guidance, telling investors to expect a loss after taxation of not more than CN¥98,000,000 for 2025, compared with a profit of about CN¥556,370,000...

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The 1-year total shareholder return is very large and multi year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1178":"煤与消费用燃料","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","00866":"中国秦发"},"translate_title":"中国秦发集团（SEHK：866）2025年亏损指引后的估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00866":0.9,"DCF":1},"content_text":"China Qinfa Group (SEHK:866) has issued new earnings guidance, telling investors to expect a loss after taxation of not more than CN¥98,000,000 for 2025, compared with a profit of about CN¥556,370,000 in 2024. See our latest analysis for China Qinfa Group. The earnings guidance sits against a very strong recent run in the stock, with a 1-day share price return of 8.09% and a year to date share price return of 41.67%. The 1-year total shareholder return is very large and multi year total shareholder returns are also extremely high, suggesting momentum has been strong even after a 1-month share price return decline of 8.56%. If this update has you reassessing coal and energy exposure, it may be a good time to look at other resource opportunities such as 27 elite gold producer stocks on Simply Wall St. So with guidance pointing to a CN¥98,000,000 loss in 2025 but the share price still up strongly over 1 year, is China Qinfa Group now trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementPreferred P/E of 14.8x: Is it justified? China Qinfa Group trades on a P/E of 14.8x, which puts a specific price on each unit of earnings at the current HK$3.74 share price. P/E compares the share price to the company’s earnings per share, so it effectively shows how much investors are paying today for current profitability. For a coal focused business that is already profitable, this metric can be a useful shorthand for how the market views the durability and quality of those earnings. According to Simply Wall St data, China Qinfa Group screens as good value against a peer average P/E of 35.3x. This suggests the market is assigning a lower earnings multiple than some similar companies. There is no fair ratio available here, so there is no model based P/E level that the price could gravitate towards over time. Against the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry though, the picture flips. China Qinfa Group is described as expensive versus an industry average P/E of 11.9x. That higher multiple points to the market assigning a richer price tag than the broader sector, even though the stock is referenced as good value compared with its direct peer set. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. Result: Price-to-Earnings of 14.8x (ABOUT RIGHT) However, you still have to weigh the guided CN¥98,000,000 loss for 2025 and the stock’s very large 1 year return as potential pressure points. Find out about the key risks to this China Qinfa Group narrative. Another View, what does the DCF say? The SWS DCF model points in a very different direction, with China Qinfa Group at HK$3.74 trading above an estimated future cash flow value of HK$0.50. That suggests the current price is rich relative to the model. The question is which yardstick you trust more: earnings or cash flows? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 866 Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out China Qinfa Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 220 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If the mixed signals in this update leave you unsure, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers yourself against different scenarios, starting with 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If this update has sharpened your focus, do not stop at one stock. Broaden your watchlist with ideas that fit your risk, income, and value priorities.  Target potential mispricings by scanning our list of 220 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with more attractive entry points. Strengthen your income stream by reviewing 445 dividend fortresses that combine 5%+ yields with an emphasis on stability. Prioritise resilience by checking out 325 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on balance sheet strength and business risk.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}