A Look At New Hope (ASX:NHC) Valuation After Steady Unaudited Coal Production And Sales Update

Simply Wall St.

Feb 25

New Hope (ASX:NHC) shares are in focus after the company released unaudited production and coal sales figures for the quarter and year to date to January 31, 2026, showing broadly steady volumes ...

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The 1 year total shareholder return of 30.28% and very...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NHC":"National Healthcare Corp","NHC.AU":"NEW HOPE CORP LTD"},"translate_title":"未经审计的煤炭生产和销售稳定更新后新希望(ASX：NHC)估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NHC.AU":1.5,"NHC":1.5},"content_text":"New Hope (ASX:NHC) shares are in focus after the company released unaudited production and coal sales figures for the quarter and year to date to January 31, 2026, showing broadly steady volumes compared with the previous year. See our latest analysis for New Hope. The unaudited production and sales update sits alongside a strong run in the shares, with a recent 1 day share price return of 3.81% and a 90 day share price return of 26.61%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 30.28% and very large 5 year total shareholder return suggest long term holders have already seen substantial gains. If this coal update has you thinking about other resource opportunities, it could be worth scanning our list of 27 elite gold producer stocks as a starting point for further research. Yet with the shares trading above the average analyst price target but sitting on a high intrinsic discount score, the real question is whether New Hope is still undervalued or if the market is already banking on future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 16% Overvalued With New Hope last closing at A$4.90 against a narrative fair value of A$4.24, the current price sits above that widely followed estimate, putting the recent production update in the context of a richer starting point.  Analysts are assuming New Hope's revenue will grow by 3.2% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 28.8% today to 24.2% in 3 years time.  Read the complete narrative. Revenue nudging higher while margins ease, that is the core tension behind this A$4.24 fair value. Curious which long term earnings and profit assumptions really drive that gap to today’s A$4.90 price and how sensitive the outcome is to even small changes in those estimates? The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail. Result: Fair Value of A$4.24 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, strong operational cash flows and preparation for future expansion projects could support higher volumes and earnings, challenging the idea that the shares are already pricing in too much optimism. Find out about the key risks to this New Hope narrative. Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends a Different Signal While the narrative model suggests New Hope is 16% overvalued at A$4.90, the plain P/E story is very different. On 9.4x earnings, the shares sit well below the Oceanic Oil and Gas average of 20.3x, the peer average of 11x, and even a fair ratio of 15.6x. That kind of gap can point to either a valuation cushion or a warning that the market is pricing in real risks. Which side of that line do you think New Hope belongs on? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:NHC P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026Next Steps Mixed signals or early opportunity: either way, the real insight comes from looking at the numbers yourself and weighing the trade off. To see how the potential upside compares with the concerns already on investors' minds, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you risk missing opportunities that better fit your goals. Widen your net and pressure test your thinking with a few focused screens.  Target reliable cash generators by scanning companies in our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (17 results) and see which ones look built to handle tougher conditions. Spot potential value opportunities early by checking our screener containing 13 high quality undiscovered gems, where strong fundamentals have not yet attracted broad attention. Build a steadier income stream by reviewing companies in our 9 dividend fortresses that pair higher yields with an emphasis on resilience.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if New Hope might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}