MW Trump said 'sometimes you have to' use force on Friday. Oil markets now see high odds of the U.S. striking Iran.

By Myra P. Saefong

If the U.S. attacks Iran, oil prices 'are headed into the sky along with the missiles,' says one energy-market investor

Iran ramped up oil exports in recent weeks - a signal that it is "preparing for some type of military incursion and is trying to get out as much crude as possible ahead of such an event," said Matt Smith of Kpler.

Oil prices jolted higher on Friday, booking their biggest daily gain in over a week, after President Trump signaled the window for using diplomacy to end Tehran's nuclear program may be closing.

"I'd love not to use" the U.S. military to attack Iran, "but sometimes you have to," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Friday. He also said a final decision on whether to attack Iran had not yet been made.

The president's "sometimes you have to" bombshell lit the fuse for oil on Friday, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners.

Oil prices settled at their highest levels in about seven months Friday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery (CL.1) (CLJ26) finished at $67.02 a barrel, up 2.8% for the month, while global benchmark Brent crude for April delivery (BRNJ26), which expired at the end of Friday's session, tallied a monthly rise of 2.5%, to $72.48.

Prices rose on fears that this weekend could "flip the switch from talk to tomahawk," said Raj. Traders are "baking in a fat $10 risk premium," or the extra price per barrel of oil beyond "fair value" based on supply and demand dynamics. "This is pure geopolitical nitro, leaving bulls high-fiving over the chokepoint drama," he noted.

There are several "chokepoints" to worry about when it comes to oil infrastructure and the flow of crude in and around Iran. The country has been among the world's biggest oil producers, with a 4% share of the world's oil output in 2023.

Here's what matters in terms of the oil infrastructure in surrounding Iran.

Iran's "last-resort weapon" has always been a threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report this week from Oxford Analytica. The waterway is a crucial maritime passage for crude transport that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Seas.

From the archives: Strait of Hormuz, the world's biggest oil chokepoint, in focus as U.S.-Iran tensions flare

A closure of the passageway might prove difficult, but significant disruption and heightened risks would have a major impact on regional trade as well as international oil prices, the Oxford Analytica report said.

The Iranians don't appear to be making concessions, so "we should expect U.S. military action," said Matt Smith, U.S. head analyst at Kpler. There's a "near 80% probability" of some form of U.S. military action against Iran, he added - noting that Trump last week gave a deadline of 10 to 15 days to make a deal with Iran, leaving this weekend as a possibility for a U.S. strike.

That's particularly important as Iran has ramped up exports in recent weeks, according to Smith. It's a signal that Iran is "preparing for some type of military incursion and is trying to get out as much crude as possible ahead of such an event," he said.

Iran's crude-oil exports climbed significantly in February from a month earlier, data from Kpler show.

Last week, Iran exported 26 million barrels, according to Smith, who pointed out that it typically exports less than half that amount. This lifted February crude exports from Iran to the highest monthly pace since July 2018, he said.

But it's not a U.S. strike on Iran itself that would be the key concern, said Velandera Energy's Raj.

The biggest "oil-market nightmare" would be Iran "flipping the Strait of Hormuz switch," he told MarketWatch - disrupting maritime passage through the narrow chokepoint, which carries 20% of the world's global crude.

"One missile barrage, and we're staring at a $90 barrel moonshot and sending prices into orbit faster than a Texas wildcatter striking paydirt," said Raj.

Yet a weekend strike is far from guaranteed - especially after Badr Albusaidi, Oman's foreign minister, said "significant progress" was made during negotiations on Thursday, while signaling talks between the U.S. and Iran are set to continue.

"Trump's 'we'll see what happens' vibe screams 'keep negotiating or else,'" Raj noted.

-Myra P. Saefong

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February 27, 2026 17:38 ET (22:38 GMT)

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