A Look At CSL (ASX:CSL) Valuation After Clazakizumab Deal And Recent Earnings Pressure

Simply Wall St.

Feb 27

CSL (ASX:CSL) has come into focus after out licensing its IL 6 antibody clazakizumab to Eli Lilly, securing A$100 million up front, along with future milestones and royalties tied to Lilly led ...

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See our latest analysis for CSL. That clazakizumab deal lands at a time when CSL’s share price has been under pressure, with a 30 day share price return showing an 18.55% decline, a 90 day share price return showing a 21.22% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return showing a 42.56% decline, pointing to fading momentum despite ongoing buybacks, an interim dividend and director equity purchases. If this CSL news has you rethinking where healthcare opportunities might sit, it could be worth scanning 10 healthcare AI stocks as a starting point for other ideas in the sector. With CSL’s share price under pressure, an 81% first half profit plunge and a fresh A$100 million Lilly deal on the table, is the stock now trading below its underlying potential, or is the market already factoring in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 44.3% Undervalued According to the most followed narrative on CSL, the fair value is set at A$263.33 per share, compared with the last close of A$146.76. This points to a large valuation gap based on that framework.  CSL Limited exhibits strong fundamental characteristics, underpinned by leadership in plasma therapies and influenza vaccines, a robust R&D pipeline, and clear drivers for earnings growth, particularly the ongoing recovery of CSL Behring's gross margin. The integration of CSL Vifor adds diversification, although it faces near term competitive pressures.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how that fair value is built? The narrative leans heavily on earnings expansion, margin rebuild in plasma, and a long runway of cash flows that are anything but simple. According to Ramsee, the author of this narrative, the valuation work uses a discounted cash flow model with a 4.0% discount rate and a long forecast period, treating CSL as a company whose cash generation can be projected and then brought back to today in A$ terms. The gap between the A$263.33 fair value and A$146.76 last close is tied to assumptions about revenue growth, margin recovery and capital intensity across Behring, Seqirus and Vifor, rather than short term share price moves. Result: Fair Value of A$263.33 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on tariff assumptions and CSL hitting its margin goals, with tougher US trade rules or slower Behring recovery both potential spoilers for that thesis. Find out about the key risks to this CSL narrative. Another Way To Look At It: Earnings Multiple Check Ramsee’s work leans on discounted cash flows, but the current P/E of 35.8x tells a different story. It sits above the Global Biotechs average of 29.5x and above the 29.3x fair ratio the market could move towards, even though it is below a 60.8x peer average. So is this price tag compensation for quality, or a sign that expectations need to reset? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:CSL P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026Next Steps With sentiment on CSL clearly mixed, this is a moment to check the numbers yourself and decide where you stand, starting with 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If CSL has sharpened your focus on quality and price, do not stop here. Use these focused stock ideas to pressure test your thinking and spot opportunities others might skip.  Start with value by scanning 8 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their underlying businesses. Prioritise resilience by checking 8 resilient stocks with low risk scores where balance sheets, earnings quality and risk checks all work together to reduce unpleasant surprises. Hunt for lesser known stories through our screener containing 10 high quality undiscovered gems and see which under the radar names match your own filters before they get crowded.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}