金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，随着硬件架构迭代，卡单token的成本下降，能源价格在全球AI竞争中的重要性与日俱增。据该机构测算，千万亿级全球日均token用量对中国电量和电力或有10%级别弹性，对绿证价格、容量电价甚至电量电价的拉动显著。与市场观点不同之处在于，市场尚未意识到AI的全球竞赛已经从“训练时代”演化到“推理时代”，国产与海外算力的差距在缩小，Agent模式的token消耗将会呈现指数增长。市场可能认为中国大模型token出海的核心竞争优势是电价，但是该机构测算发现电价占比目前仅10%，随着芯片推理经济性和效率的优化、电价在单位token的成本中占比有可能持续提升。该机构推荐：1）受益于AIDC可再生能源需求的绿电公司；2）受益于容量电价弹性的火电公司；3）电量和电价弹性下利润兼具弹性、估值兼具性价比港股火电；4）2026年开始中国基荷电源和新能源装机都会降速，板块已经步入配置窗口。
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