金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指，冲突加剧之前，伊朗前期限气停产装置陆续恢复，日均产量从最低的6000吨大幅增加至23000吨，开工率提升至60%左右，随着冲突加剧，热战不断扩散，市场消息称伊朗地区甲醇装置ZPC、KPC、Busher以及Arian全部停车，日产快速骤减至2000吨左右，国内市场担忧未来进口量大幅缩减，且如果热战持续，霍尔木兹海峡封锁时间过长，华东、华南地区库存将会快速去化，同时随着热战逐渐升级，国内西北地区甲醇现货涨价亦跟随情绪大幅上涨，市场担忧供应短缺加剧。该机构续指，单边：由于伊朗地区甲醇均需通过霍尔木兹海峡运往国内，因此热战结束前，低多为主一旦中东局势反转，国内高供应高库存压力将会快速兑现，届时高空为主，持续重点关注。
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