港股异动 | 铝业股集体上扬 中东局势升级引发电解铝供应链稳定性担忧

智通财经
Mar 04

智通财经APP获悉,铝业股集体上扬,截至发稿,南山铝业国际(02610)涨5.69%,报66.9港元;中国铝业(02600)涨4.15%,报14.57港元;创新实业(02788)涨3.26%,报24.7港元;中国宏桥(01378)涨3.11%,报37.84港元。

消息面上,2月28日以来,中东局势持续升级,引发市场对中东电解铝产区供应链稳定性的担忧。中信建投指出,当前中东地区紧张的军事局势,正在威胁全球铝供应链。报告指出,中东六国拥有约700万吨电解铝产能,特别是伊朗近80万吨产能,其原料输入和成品输出正面临双向威胁。在全球铝库存整体抗冲击能力不强的背景下,铝价趋于上涨。

花旗指出,铝冶炼厂通常会维持约一到两周的氧化铝库存——在物流条件更为脆弱的地区,库存周期可能更长——这在一定程度上限制了短期内对生产造成的直接风险。该行表示,战争风险保费上升、运费维持高位,以及来自海湾地区的额外航运延误,是当前阶段最有可能出现的近期影响。高盛则认为,中东局势推高的能源价格,也将通过成本曲线对全球铝冶炼盈利能力产生传导效应。

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