金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，春节后猪价持续下跌，截至3月2日全国生猪均价已经跌至10.56元/公斤，再创2022年以来新低。当前生猪市场演绎的是低猪价亏损去产能逻辑，后期猪价继续下跌有望带动能繁母猪去化加速。本轮猪周期能繁母猪去化自2025年8月起，10-11月猪价大跌期间能繁母猪加速去化，但12月-1月随着猪价反弹能繁母猪去化速度也有所放缓，甚至部分机构样本出现能繁存栏反弹，3-4月随着猪价进一步超预期下跌，该机构认为，期间行业整体能繁母猪存栏去化有望再次加速。从历史猪周期复盘看，生猪板块在能繁母猪存栏去化阶段和猪周期反转阶段都有较好表现，但整体上投资越发提前，2021-2022年和2023-2024年这两轮猪周期中，能繁产能去化阶段的生猪板块股价涨幅大于猪价反转阶段，而在当下这样产能去化的前半程，猪价超预期下跌是行情的重要催化，且当前板块位置较低，重点推荐。
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