智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国平安(02318)计划于3月26日收市后公布2025年业绩。按可比口径计算，该行预计集团归母营运利润同比增9%，意味着第四季同比增幅达23%。该行表示，集团第四季增长加快主要是资产管理业务的减值损失减少，以及产险承保利润增长转强。瑞银微调平安模型，但对股东应占净利润的预测基本不变，维持目标价88港元; 评级“买入”。
集团股东应占净利润方面，瑞银预计，2025年全年同比增5%; 资产净值同比增长7%，意味着第四季按季温和增长; 2025年全年派息总额预计每股2.68元人民币，同比增长5%。长远而言，瑞银认为派息总额最终应会与归母营运利润同步增长。
瑞银又预计，集团2025年全年新业务价值同比增长30%。与传统产品相比，分红保单带来的利率风险及盈利波动性较低。该行认为平保2026年第一季将录得25%至30%的新业务价值增长; 预测2026年全年新业务价值增长18%，或处于行业领先水平。瑞银认为，平安凭借其规模优势(如品牌、对银行的议价能力)以及拓展银保渠道的承诺，公司处于有利位置，能捕捉存款迁移及银保合作的机遇。
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