1549 GMT - Inflation in the eurozone would settle way above the European Central Bank's 2% target if oil prices were to rise to $100 a barrel, says Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer in a note. On the other hand, if the jump in oil prices is only temporary, inflation would likely rise to 2.4%. Financial markets are pricing in a short war between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran, with oil prices expected to come down again in the summer, he says. "If, on the other hand, the conflict continues to escalate and the oil price settles permanently at $100, inflation could be around 3% for the rest of this year." Meanwhile European trade is unlikely to be hit too hard by conflict in the Middle East. "The region accounts for only around 2% of German goods exports," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2026 10:49 ET (15:49 GMT)

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