摩根大通经济学家指出，伊朗冲突对全球经济的影响取决于敌对状态的持续时长。他们认为油价上涨是最可能引发显著涟漪效应的经济传导渠道。

　　若冲突短暂，油价或将迅速回落至原有轨迹，全球经济或不会受到剧烈冲击。

　　反之，若油价在整个上半年持续走高，能源价格冲击可能使全球上半年GDP年化增长率降低0.6个百分点，同时推动全球消费者通胀率上升逾1个百分点。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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