摩根大通预测，伊拉克和科威特分别还有约3天及14天就会被迫关闭通常通过霍尔木兹海峡出口的原油供应。

　　包括Natasha Kaneva在内的分析师写道，到霍尔木兹海峡关闭的第八天，约会有330万桶/日的原油产量被关闭，

　　到第15天将增至约380万桶/日；

　　到第18天将增至约470万桶/日；

　　估算仅适用于原油，不包括成品油。

　　该行指出，这只是保守估计，并未包括波斯湾一些油储和未分配、可能改道至两国的空载船。

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