Asia Week Ahead: PMI Reports, Inflation Prints, and Trade Activity

MT Newswires
Mar 02

For the week ahead in Asia, markets face a dense run of activity indicators and macro prints, led by a wave of S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) releases across the region.

The week kicks off Monday with manufacturing PMI readings spanning Australia through India, alongside inflation and trade updates from Indonesia.

Attention then turns Tuesday to Japan's unemployment data and remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with a South Korea manufacturing PMI also due.

Wednesday brings Australia's fourth-quarter GDP print, while China releases its official PMIs alongside S&P Global's private readings.

The back half of the week features Malaysia's central bank meeting on Thursday, plus Australia trade figures and inflation prints from Thailand and the Philippines, before Friday closes with a broad sweep of Vietnam data and an inflation report from South Korea.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, March 2

The week kicked off with a flurry of S&P Global purchasing managers' index reports covering manufacturing activity in multiple regions, including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India.

Australia's manufacturing sector showed slower growth in February, with new orders, output, and employment all easing, while supply chain pressures persisted and business confidence weakened, according to S&P Global.

The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index fell to 51 in February from 52.3 in January, signaling the slowest pace of growth in the current sequence.

Meanwhile, the Japanese manufacturing sector signalled a stronger recovery in February, with rates of output, new orders, and employment all expanding at their steepest rates since the start of 2022.

The headline S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI picked up to 53.0 in February from 51.5 in January, marking the most pronounced improvement in business conditions since May 2022.

Acceleration was also seen in India, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines in February, while contracting in Malaysia during the month.

Elsewhere, Indonesia reported its inflation and trade figures.

Indonesia's consumer prices rose 4.76% year on year in February, with the Consumer Price Index climbing to 110.50. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose 2.63% annually in February, while month-on-month core inflation was 0.42%, the data showed.

Indonesia's exports rose 3.39% year on year to $22.2 billion in January, while imports grew 18.21% annually to $21.2 billion. The country recorded a trade surplus of $950 million in January, falling from $2.52 billion a month prior.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge fell in February, largely influenced by declines in transport prices, mainly due to lower fuel costs.

Annual headline inflation, as measured by the inflation gauge, remained elevated above the upper limit of the 2%-to-3% target band for the past six months.

India reports its January industrial and manufacturing production figures later Monday, while Macao releases its fourth-quarter retail sales figures, as well as its inflation and unemployment figures for the first month of 2026.

The official Singapore manufacturing PMI will also be due later in the day.

TUESDAY, March 3

Markets will turn their attention to unemployment data coming in from Japan, with observers expecting the January jobless rate to remain steady at 2.60%, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak at an event in Tokyo the same day, which markets will follow for clues on when the central bank could raise interest rates next.

On the activity front, S&P Global will release a PMI report covering manufacturing in South Korea during February.

Thailand and Taiwan will release business and consumer confidence surveys, respectively.

WEDNESDAY, March 4

Australia's fourth-quarter GDP print will capture headlines Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a 2.1% year-on-year growth in the economy in the final months of 2025, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

National Australia Bank forecasts the economy to grow 2.2% and said it expects the GDP data to show strong consumption growth in the final months of last year--though some of that strength may reflect shoppers shifting spending around sales periods.

"Abstracting from some of the December-quarter volatility, the economy appears to be growing broadly in line with its long-run potential," Westpac, which is forecasting 2.3% in growth, said in a preview.

Neighboring New Zealand reports fourth-quarter export and import prices the same day.

According to CommBank, the terms of trade, a measure of a country's export prices relative to its import prices, eased 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025 following a 2.1% fall in the prior quarter.

China will also be in the news as it reports its official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMIs for February.

A private reading from S&P Global on China's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs will be released concurrently.

S&P Global will also release PMI reports covering service and composite activity in Australia, Japan, and India, while PMI reports for Hong Kong and Singapore will be due.

A consumer confidence survey in Japan will be expected.

Meanwhile, South Korea will report January industrial production and retail sales figures.

Economists at ING expect industrial production and retail sales in January to show mild gains, driven by global chip demand and a local equity rally.

Elsewhere, Taiwan releases its January export orders data, while Hong Kong reports retail sales stats for the month.

THURSDAY, March 5

Malaysia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision, with Trading Economics expecting Bank Negara to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.

Analysts at Citi also forecast no change to the policy rate, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Australia will report trade figures for January. Markets expect Australia's trade surplus to rise to AU$3.9 billion in the first month of 2026, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

Westpac said it expects the trade surplus to clock in higher at AU$4.2 billion, thanks to rising exports and stable imports during the month.

Both Thailand and the Philippines will report February inflation data.

According to Trading Economics, inflation in the Philippines could accelerate to 2.1% year on year from the 2% rise witnessed in January.

Meanwhile, deflationary pressure is expected to subside in Thailand as prices fall at a rate of 0.4% year-on-year from the nearly 0.7% drop in January, according to an estimate from Trading Economics.

Lastly, Singapore and Taiwan will release January retail sales stats, with the latter also reporting industrial production figures for the month.

FRIDAY, March 6

The week rounds off with a flurry of macro releases from Vietnam, covering inflation, trade, industrial production, and retail sales.

According to Trading Economics, Vietnam's trade deficit is expected to widen to $2 billion from $1.78 billion in January.

Meanwhile, inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.6% year on year in January from the 2.5% recorded a month prior, according to a forecast from Trading Economics.

South Korea will also release February inflation data. Economists at ING expect consumer inflation to rise to 2.2% year-on-year from 2% in January due to higher gasoline prices and price hikes during the holiday season.

Taiwan will similarly report February inflation figures. According to a Trading Economics forecast, inflation could remain largely flat at 0.7% year on year during the month.

Lastly, the Philippines will report its January industrial production stats.

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