金吾财讯 | 煤炭股逆市上扬，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨4.78%，中国秦发(00866)涨4.45%，蒙古能源(00276)涨2.86%，南戈壁(01878)涨1.97%，中煤能源(01898)涨1.11%。开源证券研报指出，三月煤矿复产增多，中东局势有望持续催化煤价。资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上的脉冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧，已到布局时点。该行称，当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供了空间。随着供给端“查超产”政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和“煤和火电企业盈利均分”的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现出更大的价格弹性。
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