【券商聚焦】广发证券维持百度(09888)“买入”评级 指云、芯片在26年有望保持良好增势

金吾财讯
Mar 03

金吾财讯 | 广发证券发研报指,百度(09888)25Q4收入327亿元,YoY-4%,QoQ+5%,vs.彭博一致预期为327亿元。nonGAAP运营利润为29.67亿元,YoY/QoQ-41%/+35%,vs.一致预期为26.6亿元。nonGAAP净利润为39.07亿元,YoY/QoQ-42%/+4%,vs.一致预期为34.6亿元。百度Core25Q4收入261亿元,YoY-6%/QoQ+6%,vs.一致预期为260亿元。nonGAAP运营利润为28.37亿元,YoY/QoQ-39%/+28%,vs.一致预期为25.38亿元。nonGAAP净利润为38.69亿元,YoY-43%,QoQ+1%,vs.一致预期为32.09亿元。AI相关收入占比升至43%,业务已过转型阵痛。百度Core重新分类业务口径:(1)AI-powered Business25Q4收入达113亿元,占总收入43%。AI Cloud Infra25Q4达到58亿元,YoY+143%,25年收入近200亿元,同增34%。AI Applications25Q4收入达到27亿元。AI-native Marketing Services(包含在原广告业务)25Q4收入27亿元。(2)传统广告本季度收入达123亿元。(3)其他收入25亿元人民币。云、芯片在26年有望保持良好增势,传统广告下滑对收入和利润的边际影响逐渐衰退。该机构预计2026-27百度收入达1315/1365亿元,同增2%/4%。预计2026-27年经调整归母净利润分别为181/186亿元,同比变动-4%/+3%。按SOTP估值法对应每股合理价值177美元/ADS(合173港元/股),维持“买入”评级。

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