The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0848 ET - The U.S.'s position as the world's largest oil producer helps contain the rise in fuel prices resulting from the U.S.-Iran conflict, Tortoise Capital portfolio manager Rob Thummel says in a note. "The U.S. owes some gratitude to the U.S. energy industry." With the U.S. adding more than 13 million barrels a day of crude to global supply, "the spike in oil and gasoline prices during a major geopolitical event like this is significantly less," he says. "Short-term gasoline prices likely follow oil prices." WTI crude is up 8% at $72.40 a barrel, and Nymex gasoline is up 5.4% at $2.4080 a gallon.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0837 ET - Treasurys sell off, sending yields higher, as the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran spreads across the region. Investors seek safe havens, sending gold up 2% and the WSJ Dollar Index up nearly 1%. Demand for Treasurys, however, dwindle. "Could this be a case of investors moving funds out of Bonds into the USD?" FP Markets' Aaron Hill wonders in a note. He speculates that rising oil prices could impact inflation "and prompt the Fed to remain on hold for longer than expected." The 10-year yield is at 4.002%, up from 3.961% Friday. The two-year rises to 3.449% from 3.377%. The dollar strengthens nearly 1% against the euro and the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0831 ET - It's reasonable to expect a virtual halt to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict continues, Macquarie Group's Vikas Dwivedi says in a note. "We believe the duration of conflict remains the most important consideration for energy markets," Dwivedi says, as well as the targeting of energy infrastructure which so far appears limited. "The world can handle the Strait of Hormuz being shut in for 1 to 2 weeks, but the impact on oil price will escalate rapidly after the third week and definitely after the fourth week," he says. "The reason is not so much the lack of world storage and SPR's, but the deliverability." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0816 ET - Natural gas prices are soaring after QatarEnergy halted LNG production following a drone attack on its Ras Laffan complex, increasing worries about supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. A disruption of flows of two or so weeks would push Dutch TTF and Asian JKM prices to a $14-$18 per million British thermal units, or EUR40s to EUR50s per megawatt/hour, Citi's Anthony Yuen said in a note before the Qatari production halt. A longer-than-expected disruption could lift prices to around the $30/mmBtu range, or close to EUR100/MWh. If the conflict ends in coming days, "with credible de-escalation following," it could swiftly lower prices to pre-war levels, he adds. Dutch TTF is up 46% at EUR46.70/MWh. In the U.S., a key supplier of LNG to Europe, Nymex natural gas is up 7.1% at $3.063/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0812 ET - As the markets and global economy grapple with the impact of AI on the workforce and potential disinflation, Evercore ISI says they now have to contend with the economics of an oil price shock as well. In a scenario where crude oil hits $100-$120 a barrel, the firm says the price shock would be substantial "raising risks to inflation expectations, and, while prior oversupply would prevent an immediate quantity constraint, any sustained closure of the Straits could bring quantity constraints as well as price impacts." Benchmark U.S. crude futures jump 7% to around $72 a barrel, while Brent futures, the global price gauge, surge 8% to roughly $79. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0733 ET - U.S. stock futures are sharply lower with oil prices surging as the U.S. and Israel continue to hit Iran, and Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. "With Washington signaling that operations could continue for weeks, markets are confronting an open-ended conflict rather than a brief exchange. This creates a highly unpredictable environment. Financial markets struggle to price scenarios where the potential outcomes range from rapid containment to broader regional conflict," Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com says in a note. Futures for Brent crude oil, the global energy benchmark, rise over 7% while S&P futures are off 78 points. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0714 ET - Investors investing over a three- to 12-month time span should buy into the equities dip after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka writes in a research note. Although the conflict's course is unpredictable, political pressures mean the buildup is unlikely to last, the analyst writes. Equities sell off Monday in part due to concerns around an inflation shock caused by rising oil prices. Such fears are misplaced as oil prices will likely fall back on excess supply, Matejka says. European equities largely fall, with the Stoxx 600 index down 1.7%. U.S. stock futures are also in the red, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 1.1%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0712 ET - Short-term oil price spikes have limited impact on energy companies' cash flows, says Maurizio Carulli from Quilter Cheviot. "There needs to be at least a month or two of a substantially different level of oil price to have a meaningful impact on quarterly indicators both at a company and at a macroeconomic level," the energy analyst says. "It is the average oil price over a given period of time which matters, not the single discrete data points." Roughly, a sustained $10-a-barrel change in oil prices can cause an increase or decrease in cash flow by 5%-10% for integrated energy companies and by 10%-15% for exploration and production companies, according to firm. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0707 ET - Citi's base case is for Brent to trade in an $80-$90 a barrel range over the coming week while the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continues, with heightened risks to regional energy infrastructure and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions around the strait are due to risk aversion rather than an effective closure, Max Layton says in a note. Citi's baseline view is that the Iranian leadership or regime changes sufficiently to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the U.S. decides to de-escalate having seen a change in leadership and setback to Iran's missiles and nuclear program. "We estimate prices would pull back to $70 a barrel or so on these kinds of de-escalation." Citi assigns a 20% probability to a bull case scenario which could see Brent rise to around $120 a barrel, and 20% to its bear case with prices falling back to the $60s. Brent is up 7.3% at $78.20 a barrel after topping $82 overnight. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0549 ET - European natural-gas prices could nearly double if flows through the Strait of Hormuz were fully stopped for one month, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. In such a scenario, northwest European gas storage would have around 8% less capacity, pushing TTF prices to about 62 euros a megawatt-hour from around 39 euros currently. With oil prices likely rising as well, TTF could climb further to 74 euros a megawatt-hour. For a longer disruption lasting more than two months, gas prices could exceed 100 euros, which would likely lead to significant global gas demand destruction--a situation where high prices force consumers to reduce their gas usage--as markets would struggle to compensate for the supply shortfall before the next winter, Goldman says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0535 ET - Palm oil rallied to end above 4,100 ringgit a ton, as mounting concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East push crude oil prices higher, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The surge in oil prices is also pushing palm oil prices higher, Ng says. He sees crude palm oil prices supported above 4,050 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,250 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery closed 104 ringgit higher at 4,146 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0257 ET - Israel's decision to suspend gas exports and some of its offshore natural gas production due to security concerns following an outbreak of hostilities with Iran could alter regional flows, Kpler's Jana Sutenko says. "Israel has several natural gas fields offshore the Mediterranean Sea, making it one of the key regional gas suppliers," she says. The suspension might impact regional flows and LNG production in Egypt, as Israel is a key supplier to both Egypt and Jordan. Israel's energy ministry said it is in contact with neighboring countries and will resume supply as soon as possible, but didn't specify which rigs were shut down, according to Kpler. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2026 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)

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